Can Newcastle pull off an upset in the Carabao Cup Final?

An data-led look the weaknesses and strengths that Newcastle United will have to exploit and nullify if they are to win the 24/25 Carabao Cup final.

Here we are again. This weekend, Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United will walk out at Wembley with another chance to end the club’s 70-year wait for a major domestic trophy. I’m not gonna lie—I’m bricking it.

Unlike two seasons ago, when our pre-cup-final form and finishing had dipped slightly on our way to qualifying for the Champions League, I felt like we had something of an even shot (at least before Pope’s sending off) at winning the cup against Ten Hag’s Manchester United. This time, I’m expecting us to lose.

I’m not trying to be defeatist, but the reality of facing off against perhaps the best club team in Europe – and by extension the world – while not being in scintillating form ourselves does not fill me with a tonne of hope.

I’m not meekly accepting defeat, just tempering my fannish hopes of seeing Newcastle United end the drought (or break the gypsie curse if you read Twitter a lot) with a cold dose of reality.

To win Newcastle are going to need a bit of variance (or luck if you prefer) and a solid gameplan to attack Liverpool’s weaknesses and limit their strengths, and it’s these that I want to cover in this newsletter.

Just how good are Liverpool?

To be blunt, very-effing-good. With 29 matches played and just one defeat, Liverpool currently sits 15 points clear atop the Premier League table and it’s not a fluke. They’re generating 1.71 expected goals for (xG) and 0.77xG against (xGA) per 90 - nearly a goal (0.94xG Difference) a game worth of better quality chance created than conceded.

They’ve done this with a brutally efficient attack and defence, excelling in not just one, but both areas vs. the rest of the league.

As you can see from the images, Newcastle’s patchy performances place them firmly in a group of teams in the upper mid-table space. While at times they’ve shown glimpses of being the best of the rest, underlying squad depth and aging player issues have begun to bite in the final months of the season.

When it comes to their style of play, Slots Liverpool 🔴 are a finely balanced team that share some traits with Howe’s Newcastle teams 🔵, albeit with a boost in execution due to overall player quality available across their respective squads. In defence, both teams press the ball – though Liverpool less aggressively and with fewer bodies committed –  before dropping into a more passive positional game once a team has established possession in their half, allowing teams to keep the ball in areas that they deem less dangerous.

In attack, again statistically the outputs are largely similar with general player quality somewhat dictating the quality of the outputs. The superior in possession quality of Liverpool’s defenders allows for a more methodical approach to build up, while having two of the all-time Premier League greats combining down their right wing does not hurt the efficiency of Liverpool’s attacking.

How do you stop Salah & Alexander-Arnold?

A closer look at where Liverpool’s goals have come from this season confirms just how much gravity the right side of their attack has. The sheer volume of goals from that side of the pitch – especially from through balls – is eye-watering.

And while they do obviously create from the other side of the pitch and centrally to a degree, Salah and TAA’s ability to create shots for their teammates is also concentrated in the same areas of the pitch.

Knowing this is one thing, stopping it is an entirely different proposition. Given that no team has cracked the code for this so far this season. The only team to keep a clean sheet against Slot’s men in the league were Nottingham Forest. While perhaps the fact that they played Elliott Anderson – a central midfielder – at left wing might point to the success of a Willock/Joelinton combo, the lack of a centre back with Murillo’s recovery speed would suggest this approach would need some luck in its corner too.

Weak defensively down the right?

However, while Liverpool’s right side is an obvious attacking threat, it’s probably also the side of the pitch where you can succeed in hurting them. Without the ball, this is where their press is leakiest.

The side of the pitch where teams have success in running with the ball into Liverpool’s territory.

Where teams find it easiest to progress the ball into their defensive third, often into the spaces left by TAA going forward.

And the side of the pitch where the majority of the successful entries into their box also come from.

This leaves opposition teams playing something of a game of chicken, knowing they probably need to exploit the weaknesses on this side of the pitch, but also knowing that a mistake here is likely to lead with the ball at the feet of both of Liverpool’s best playermakers.

When we take a closer look at the few goals Liverpool have conceded from open play this season, we can see one major theme. Nine of the 21 open play goals they’ve conceded have come from throughballs, so manufacturing scenarios where they are available is probably a good idea.

When we look at where the passes from these goals have come from, there are two categories to try to exploit:

1️⃣ Throughballs from the half space on the left
2️⃣ Crosses to the penalty spot (ideally behind the defenders)

When we go to watch the footage of these goals, we can see some commonality in the build up of four of the examples.

All of them – in one form or another – see the following after a period of possession changing hands:

1. A pass that breaks the lines while Liverpool’s defence isn’t set

2. An attack that exploits the left-hand side half space (the vertical area of the pitch between the edge of the D and the front corner of the box)

3. A pace of attack that doesn’t let Liverpool reset their defensive shape

These may all feel like obvious things that teams will try to do every single attack if given the opportunity, but I would say that teams who prioritise verticality and pace in their attacking (Villa, Forest, Bournemouth, Fulham and yes, Newcastle) are more practiced at taking advantage of these moments.

Newcastle’s likely line-up

It’s pretty galling then the left hand side of Newcastle’s attack has been completely blown up in the past two weeks. Both Gordon’s pace and Hall’s natural left footed deliveries would have potentially caused Liverpool problems.

In the game at St James’ Park earlier in the season, from our usual 4-3-3 formation, Newcastle recorded the second largest xG Liverpool have conceded all season (1.34xG) – a game we didn’t come into good form with.

Even with the entire first choice left hand side missing, I find it hard to think Howe will move away from this shape to the one used at home vs. Arsenal when it’d be Krafth rather than Botman coming into the team at the expense of Joelinton/Barnes/Willock or Murphy.

So my gut feeling is that it’ll either be the team we saw vs. West Ham in with Barnes stepping in for Gordon and Livramento at left back or a combination of Willock/Joelinton dovetailing on the wing in front of the young England defender. I don't expect Howe to trial anything we’ve not at least seen before this season.

Conclusion

So there we go. I hope this newsletter has given you some things to hopefully look out for ahead of the cup final that were perhaps not the obvious “Newcastle will need to be at their best and defend well” that is normal with punditry ahead of a game where there is a clear favourite.

While I agree with the bookies in that it’s more likely that Liverpool will win, I do think their attack is potentially starting to feel the effects of a long season (see xG tendlines below) where they are still in the hunt for three trophies (at time of writing at least).

But having lost just once in the league and shown brutal efficiency in dealing with Howe’s men just a few weeks ago at Anfield coupled with Newcastle’s middling form of late, it’s hard to have a lot of confidence going into the game.

We’re justifiably underdogs without the weight of expectation (at least from me) and maybe, just maybe, Eddie Howe’s extensive experience of upsetting the odds and winning despite them will come good at the right moment for Newcastle fans this weekend.