Do we really need to talk about Bruno?

Has Guimarães really been underperforming? Or are the memories of his superhuman impact fading and people are noticing parts of his game that were there all along?

Perception plays a significant role in football, consistently shaping the expectations of fans and even professionals in the game towards players. Whether it's a high transfer fee, a change in team role, shifts in form, age considerations, or evolving fan expectations, player performances endure constant scrutiny.

In recent months, an increasing number of voices have expressed the desire to see the "old Bruno" return. They claim that he is losing possession more frequently and making more mistakes. This topic has been discussed on the Chronicles podcast and highlighted in the pages of True Faith. On Twitter, some extreme voices have suggested that he should be benched.

So how have we gotten here? And is there any merit to the claims?

The Emergence of a Newcastle United Superhero

Upon finally securing his first start, Bruno brought a remarkable surge in performances and results to the Newcastle team. Alternating between the base of the midfield trio and an advanced role on the right, Guimarães showcased his ability to execute incisive passes through defensive lines, evade pressure through dribbles, and unlock opposing defences with a level of quality not seen since Cabaye's era.

“Warra fucking player man. Bruno, Bruno, Bruno!”

The rest has since become part of Geordie folklore. He converted five goals from a 3.04xG during the run-in, including a stunning backheel against Southampton, contributing significantly to Howe's side pulling away from relegation troubles and securing an eventual 11th-place finish.

In the face of all the positivity. Of the birthing of a hero on Tyneside there’s not a huge amount of room for critical objectivity – and I include myself in this – we were all on the Guimarães hype train.

But let’s now circle back to the common complaints we’re seeing about how he’s “getting caught on the ball” more often. Here’s the baseline of that first half-season.

First season 21/22 - (12.7 games worth of 90s)

• Dispossessed - 2.60 times per-90 with 9 times in his own half

• Miscontrols - 2.84 times per-90

• Dribbles defended - 72%

Remember these, we’ll come back around to them.

Establishing a Role in a Rising Premier League Force

By the onset of the 22/23 season, Bruno had settled into a distinct role. Howe positioned him at the base of the midfield trio, making our most exceptional player the linchpin of Newcastle's play. As a press-resistant player, Guimarães' role involved receiving the ball from the defence, often under pressure and in tight spaces, and transitioning it through the opposition's lines or press to his fellow midfielders or the flanks.

As the season progressed and it became evident that Newcastle was more than mere mid-table competition, smarter opponents began devising strategies to halt Bruno. The maxim "Stop Bruno, stop Newcastle" appeared to guide their tactics, and boy did they try to stop him.

This led to 85% of Guimarães' passes in the previous season being played under pressure, ranking him fourth in the Premier League (minimum 1,200 minutes). Remarkably, there was zero change in his pass completion rate over the course of the season. If stopping him with pressure failed, fouling became the alternative, and Guimarães emerged as the most fouled central midfielder in the league, averaging 2.84 fouls per 90 minutes.

The Ankle Injury, Cup Final, and Champions League Pursuit

Considering these statistics, it was almost inevitable that Bruno would encounter injuries or knocks throughout the season. Unfortunately, this came to fruition during the 1-0 home victory against Fulham when Guimarães was substituted due to an ankle injury. His participation in the Carabao Cup final looked a doubt.

In the cup final, Bruno re-injured his ankle. After the final Howe said: “Bruno twisted his ankle. I think he did similar – against Fulham – but not too long ago in a match. He was in a bit of pain.” I’ve no doubt the player did everything he could to be on the pitch, but maybe he wasn’t quite ready and throughout the remainder of the season Guimarães was playing hurt.

This loss and the double injury was the first time we had to accept that Guimarães wasn’t in fact a superhero. There were things he couldn’t do. There were limits to his abilities.

This also coincides with a series of important games where EVERYTHING was under the microscope as minds turned to potentially winning a trophy and the qualification for the Champions League. Every mistake, loose pass and missed chance became magnified and parts of Guimarães’ game that were there all along came under greater scrutiny.

Here’s Bruno’s defensive midfielder (Number 6) radar pre 🔵 and post 🔴 that injury – including the two games so far this season. Unsurprisingly for a player carrying an injury to an ankle for the majority of the 🔴 part of this, we see a drop in the number of tackling duels he goes into. His passing % also and passing under pressure percentage also improves during this period.

Bridging the Gap between Reality and Fan Perception.

When we take another look at the most common complaints about Guimarães’ post-injury form, the reality doesn’t quite tally with the size of the conversation we’re seeing. n fact, his performance during this period seems fairly consistent and even displays improvement as he continues adapting to the league's pace:

🔵 Pre-Injury 22/23 - (15.8 games worth of 90s)

• Dispossessed - 2.73 times per-90, 21 times in his own half

• Miscontrols - 1.42 times per-90

• Dribbles defended - 70%

🔴 Post-injury (19.4 games worth of 90s)

• Dispossessed - 1.75 times per-90, 10 times in his own half

• Miscontrols - 1.65 times per-90

• Dribbles defended - 74%

To me, these changes appear to be the natural fluctuations in a player's form over time. However, I do acknowledge that during the latter part of the previous season, his ankle injury might have impacted his ability to tackle assertively and move freely around the pitch.

It's also entirely plausible that Guimarães is still rebuilding his confidence in his ankle. Even with access to the best medical care, the process of feeling fully healed can take time.

What has truly changed is our perception of him. As we grow accustomed to the success brought by Howe's style of play, our expectations as fans evolve, and our tolerance for errors diminishes. It's this shift, rather than a significant drop in his performance, that has transformed Bruno's status from a football deity to an exceptionally talented player who is still maturing as a Premier League footballer.