Elite dribbling, measured passing & a new attacking option: What Jacob Ramsey offers Newcastle United’s midfield
A data-led breakdown of how the new midfielder compares to Joelinton and what he could bring to St James’ Park
Newcastle United have completed their 4th signing of the summer, shelling out ~£40m for Jacob Ramsey from EPL rival Aston Villa.
Like Thiaw, the club have secured a player that’s been on their shortlist for a long time. Why does Howe like him so much? It’s time to take a closer look.
Pre-analysis overview
Before we look at any data, I'll add some context. Ramsey (nicknamed “JJ”) is 24 & a former England U21 international midfielder who came through Villa’s academy. Since 20/21, he has been asked to play a variety of roles for Villa as their squad evolved into Top-6 challengers.
All in all, it’s 10,000+ minutes of experience across all comps. It would’ve been even more had it not been for an injury-hit 23/24 campaign that seems to have given the player a reputation for being ‘injury-prone’ despite being available for the majority of 24/25.
As Villa adjusted for his absence, following his return from injury, Ramsey found minutes in the centre increasingly difficult to come by and played left wing, before eventually being replaced in that role midway through last season by an on-loan Marcus Rashford.
This creates an analytical challenge for me. It’s clear that Newcastle’s plan for Ramsey is chiefly to provide competition, cover, and eventually replace Joelinton in the left-sided central midfield role rather than operate on the wing.
So, because of this, I’ll need to draw on data from his 21/22 season, where he spent the majority of his playing time through the centre, to help analyse what he’ll be bringing to Howe’s team.
Additionally, because the left-sided central midfield role at Newcastle (see 🔵 dot) combines the traits of a box-to-box midfielder with those of a winger - receiving between the lines, creating from wide areas, crashing the box - his 24/25 data also provides us with valuable insights.
To illustrate that I’m not just a ‘Tactico’ with a screenshot of an out-of-context moment of a midfielder ended up on the wing to make a subjective point, here’s a heatmap of ball receipts of Ramsey (left) and Joelinton (right) to show the overlap in attacking areas.
Performances vs. Joelinton
With that context front of mind, let’s compare Ramsey’s 24/25 performances 🔴 vs. Joelinton’s 23/24 season 🔵, using a template that highlights the performance metrics Newcastle value in midfielders. Note Ramsey’s diminished defensive output from the wing.
Looking back at Ramsey’s 20/21 season 🔴, when most of his minutes came in central midfield, we see an increase in defensive output. Note that regardless of position, Ramsey offers stronger dribbling, ball progression, shot execution, and line-breaking passes than Joelinton 🔵
Player Analysis
It’s these strengths, Ramsey’s:
🏃♂️ Press resistant dribbling & ball progression
☄️ Better quality passing than Joelinton
↔️ Quality shooting off of either foot
⚖️ Potential defensive tradeoffs
That will form the basis for the rest of this analysis of what he will bring to Newcastle United.
🏃♂️ Press resistant dribbling & ball progression
I’ll start with an area where Ramsey is a big upgrade: dribbling. While Joelinton can move the ball, Ramsey’s carrying is elite, with only Leon Bailey at Aston Villa higher on Dribble & Carry On Ball-Value among 900+ minute players in 24/25.
If you’re wondering what the heck On-Ball Value (OBV) is, then here’s a quick explainer about how the model works. Think of it as data’s ‘eye test’ applied, less counting, more qualitative assessment of the players moving the needle.
While this level of ability to dribble and carry the ball has obvious attacking applications - more on that in a sec - it also makes Ramsey highly press-resistant.
Despite playing 900+ fewer EPL minutes than Joelinton, he dribbled past defenders in his own half 10 times, compared to 7 times for the Brazilian.
While I’m not knocking Joelinton’s ability to hold off a defender, Ramsey’s guile is more akin to Guimaraes’ ability to open up passing lanes that create counters.
Once free of the attentions of his marker and facing the goal, Ramsey's ability to move the ball into the final third (a Deep Progression) is chiefly powered by his ability to run with the ball, regardless of whether he plays at LCM (5.31 times per 90) or LW (4.05 times per 90).
☄️ Better quality passing than Joelinton
Being able to run with the ball is one thing, but having the composure to choose the right pass and execute it is an entirely different proposition. This is another area where Ramsey promises to be an upgrade to Joelinton.
This example shows Ramsey’s skill sets working in unison and typifies the kind of pass he likes to play around the penalty area. He’s a measured passer, likely to slip a pass down the side of a player rather than knock a hopeful ball into the box.
When we look more closely at the most frequently recurring types of high-value passes that Ramsey likes to play, we can see some clusters of similar activity:
Cut-backs & balls across the box
Balls into feet into the box & central areas
In central areas, Ramsey can break the lines with his passing and find his teammates in some of the most congested areas of the pitch, particularly impressed with the verticality of some of these passes near the ‘D’ and the half space on the left of the attack.
Some examples of all his tendencies in action are in the clips below. I’m particularly enamoured with the clip vs. Crystal Palace, the technical precision and tempo of that 1-2 before feeding the Digne isn’t something that Joelinton is great at for Newcastle.
When we compare Ramsey and Joelinton’s overall passing quality using Hudl Statsbomb’s expected pass (xPass) model, the gap in this technical quality between the two is highlighted.
Below is a plot of Joelinton’s passes vs. expected completion rates; nearly everything is below the average.
Now compare this to Ramsey, where his passes are mostly completed above the expected averages. I don’t like being hard on Joelinton about this - he is a converted striker after all - but the combination of Ramsey's improved dribbling & passing is going to help break down stubborn defences.
For those interested, here’s a little explainer of how the expected passing model works.
↔️ Quality shooting off of either foot
This brings us to the final section of this analysis, with an example of Ramsey’s passing, dribbling and shooting ending up in his only EPL goal last season (though he did score 4 in all comps).
Despite being a low-volume shooter, something that makes him less suited to playing wide, when afforded the right opportunity, Ramsey is a very classy finisher and strikes the ball cleanly using either foot and has 14 EPL goals since 20/21.
This is just two fewer than Joelinton in about 9 games worth of minutes less, I’d be surprised if Ramsey didn’t offer us a little more in this department as he spends more time playing through the centre.
Since 21/22, Ramsey has scored:
6️⃣ goals when playing Left Wing roles
8️⃣ goals when playing Central Midfield roles
This breaks down to 6️⃣ with his ⬅️ left foot and 8️⃣ with his ➡️ right foot.
Howe will doubt work with the young man to improve his shot volume, but his attacking fit in Newcastle’s system should help with that.
Here are all 17 of Ramsey’s goals for Villa. The moments when he’s crashing the box centrally from deep are particularly mouth-watering, and that left foot finish vs. Newcastle at Villa Park is seared into my memory.
⚖️ Potential defensive tradeoffs
Okay, so I’ve done a spot of pointing out things that Joelinton isn’t as good at as Ramsey at, so it’s time to flip the tables and highlight what we will lose whenever Joelinton isn’t in the team: his prodigious defensive work.
While the two men have been played in different systems, when played at LCM, Ramsey's ability to cover space off the ball is not at Joelinton’s level. To be quite frank, few pros are genuinely capable of that sort of pitch coverage.
However, the efficiency of Ramsey’s defensive work is pretty decent per 90:
Pressure regains:
Ramsey - 3.39
Joelinton - 3.42
Possession Adjusted Tackles:
Ramsey - 1.78
Joelinton - 2.04
Especially considering Emery doesn’t employ a high-pressing system.
Nevertheless, there isn’t a substitute for that level of running power, even if the emergence of Tonali as our 6, plus Hall replacing Burn at left back, gives #NUFC more legs to cover transitions. I suspect for a while, it’ll be dependent on how much defending #NUFC think they’ll need to do as to which man gets the nod, which should help protect both from fatigue injuries.
Conclusions
The Jacob Ramsey deal feels like a homerun for Newcastle United this summer. He offers a more attacking alternative to Joelinton (who has picked up more injuries in the past two seasons), with dribbling, passing and shooting better suited to breaking down defensive teams.
Ramsey gives Howe more versatility in a season where UCL games will stretch the squad and will help keep opposing managers guessing about which midfield three they need to prepare for.
What’s more, in a summer where the club can be accused of overreaching for targets, the Ramsey deal is perhaps evidence of the club rediscovering the sweet spot for their recruitment. The deal went from rumour to completion quickly.
This is because Ramsey perfectly fits the criteria of the club’s Recruitment Profile I shared earlier this summer:
✅ 24 years old
✅ Fast, hard working & high technical level
✅ 130+ EPL apps
✅ PSR-influenced opportunity
Making it an easier deal for PIF/Howe to sign off on.
In a bruising summer, it’s nice to see that lessons have not just been learned but are already being applied. With a couple of weeks to go in the window and so much still up in the air, it’ll be interesting to see if Newcastle United apply the same pragmatism to their striker search… 🤞