Newcastle United Summer Transfer Analysis 25/26

For people without a Blusky Account, here's my annual #NUFC transfer thread as a newsletter.

This was first published as a thread on BlueSky. This newsletter is for subscribers without a BlueSky account…

The 24/25 season was historic for #NUFC. Howe turned a rough summer into our first major domestic 🏆 in 70 years—and Champions League qualification.

But success brings expectation. With PSR easing & more games in 25/26, fans & Howe expect investment. But who to buy? Welcome to my third annual Summer Transfer 🧵

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Before we get stuck into another host of names, let’s mark my homework from 24/25 🧵…

✅ Lloyd Kelly ✍️’ed for #NUFC
1️⃣1️⃣ Players transferred to other teams
⏳ Mbuemo & Trafford are heavily linked this summer

1️⃣ out of 2️⃣9️⃣… but gonna give myself a break because last summer was a farce tbh.

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To be fair, I don’t think even those at the club thought Howe/Mitchell saga would play out like it did, so i’m gonna give myself a pass.

However, seeing as we’re on the right side of the PSR minefield this silly season, I am gonna shake things up a little… #NUFC

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As before, I want this 🧵 to include as many realistic factors as possible, so I’m breaking things into 4️⃣ sections:

1️⃣ Potential Sales & Loans
2️⃣ Recruitment Strategy
3️⃣ Transfer Targets
4️⃣ PSR & Other Opportunistic Deals

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1️⃣ Potential Sales & Loans

Before we can assess new players we’d like to bring in, we need to take stock of the players we already have.

This is always difficult to predict, even more so following the surprise exit of Paul Mitchell & the ages of some influential members of the #NUFC squad.

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With that in mind, I’ve pulled together a colour-coded squad list that puts players into the following categories:

🔴 Likely Leave
🟠 Uncertain
⚪ Loan or Youth Team
🟢 Likely Stay

Let’s discuss the narratives in each group of #NUFC players

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🔴 Likely Leave

#NUFC have too many GKs & something has to give—suggesting Ruddy & Vlachodimos leave isn’t controversial.

With Kelly already confirmed as gone, it’s hard to see how Longstaff, Targett & Wilson stay given their playing time expectations & limited minutes in 24/25.

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🟠 Uncertain 1/3

The futures of this group are harder to predict. Personally, I think it’s time to sell Trippier—injuries are more frequent & he’s struggling to see out games.

With Livramento first choice, Krafth signing a new deal, and highly-rated Shahar coming through, we can handle losing him.

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🟠 Uncertain 2/3

There’s a chance that Ashby/Murphy could be kept around the squad to make up numbers or go out on loan again, but honestly, neither has played well enough away from #NUFC to earn a squad role.

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🟠 Uncertain 3/3

Which leaves Joe Willock. A player who, from all accounts, Howe loves, but who has lost a lot of confidence in his body since his Achilles injuries.

If the right bid comes in, then the club & player will probably part ways. #NUFC

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⚪ Loan or Youth Team

Nothing much to say here, I’d hope these lads will all stick around in one way or another. Some doubts about whether Kuol sticks around, but he’s shown enough at U21 level to warrant attempts to retain him IMHO #NUFC

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🟢 Likely Stay

My only real surprise here is Joe White’s inclusion in the full #NUFC first team squad.

He’s been the standout loanee this season (see link), and with Longstaff likely to go, White complements Lewis Miley as another ‘Trained at club’ player.

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2️⃣ Recruitment Strategy

So, assuming all of these players move as I think they will, this is where it leaves the #NUFC squad in terms of overall numbers.

Could quite easily see Trippier & not Ashby here at the end of the window. 🔽

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When you roll that up into actual deals, it's 6️⃣ new incomings to cover 7️⃣ positions

• 1st Choice Right Winger

• 1st Choice Right Centre Back

• Backup Centre Forward

• Young Goalkeeper

• Versatile U22 Central Midfielder

• Versatile U22 Wide/Centre Forward

Total Budget: £130-150m depending on sales #NUFC

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With the same manager who likes the same things in players, the recruitment profile is the same:

• Fast & Tall (~180cm)

• 26 or younger

• EPL or Major European Comp Experience

But this year, I’ve added PSR deals as an additional category in an attempt to buy players for less than they're worth #NUFC

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I know paying premiums for EPL experience is frustrating—it feels like it comes at the cost of high-upside deals like those Bournemouth or Brighton pull off.

But it does make outcomes more predictable. With Howe, not Mitchell, leading decisions, I’m expecting more conservative transfers. #NUFC

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3️⃣ Transfer Targets

Okay, now to the fun stuff. For each target position, I’ll use performance data alongside the profile above to help narrow my search and then make at least 3️⃣ recommendations 🥇,🥈 & 🥉 per position.

Players with sustained links with a move to #NUFC will be considered more seriously.

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Young Goalkeeper

I’m going to start at the back and work up the pitch. Which brings us to a new younger stopper to compete-with and eventually replace Nick Pope.

They’ll need to have Pope’s GKing fundamentals AND the ability to be an extra body in the build-up phase for #NUFC

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In data 📊 form, this includes the following search criteria:

• Positive Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) & 🔼

• 65% Expected Save rate & 🔼

• 4% Clamable Collections Attempts over Average & 🔼

• Ability to sweep behind a high line

• High % of passes & completed under pressure

#NUFC

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🥉 Viktor Johansson | £8-10m

Probably the second best GK in the Championship last season, Johanson 🔴 is aggressive off his line & has impressive reflexes/shot stopping ability a get distance whenever he palms away. Punches balls he should catch though. #NUFC

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🥈 Christos Mandas | £15-20m

Linked with Man City, Mandas 🔴 is an effective-but-awkward- looking passer of a football, not Pope awkward but nowhere near Ederson. He’s aggressive off his line, catches shots but inexperienced & needs time to mature into a top-class EPL GK. #NUFC

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🥇 James Trafford | #30-40m

Heavily linked with #NUFC prior to an outstanding season in the Championship, Trafford 🔴 is a great sweeper, passes well off both feet & transforms our buildup.

Loves to catch cross where possible, but punches lack some authority, great shot stopper & penalty specialist.

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Re: Trafford, some people will want to point to his last season in the EPL with Burnley where he did struggle, but he won’t be the first or last GK to have had a rough time in a struggling team whose centre backs didn’t offer much by way of protection. #NUFC

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1st Choice Right Centre Back

For the past two summers, I’ve said that #NUFC need to add pace at centre back & it remains true. More pace at the heart of the defence allows our back four to play a few yards higher up the pitch, reducing the space between the lines & making us harder to play through.

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However, finding a player who has a ton of pace, is as good on the ball as Schar and is ideally better than the Swiss International in the air is not a simple task & data can only take so far with CBs. You need to watch more footage than other positions on the pitch #NUFC

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Boiled down to the relevant data points 📊 we’re looking for speedy centre backs that have:

• Better expected header (HOPS) % than Schar (59)

• Tack/Dribbled Past% = 70%+

• PAdj Tackles & Interceptions = 2+

• Line Breaking Passes = 4.5+

• Pass On Ball Value (OBV) = 0.03+

#NUFC
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In case you wanted to know a bit more about the HOPS model - effectively an expected header wins score - you can watch that here 🔽

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While I’m at it, here’s an explanation of our On-Ball Value model, too. This is especially powerful for evaluating the games of Midfielders & Wide Forwards #NUFC

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5️⃣ Malick Thiaw | £20-25m | 60% HOPS

Heavily-linked with #NUFC for a while, German international Thiaw’s 🔴 stock has dipped a little over the past season & a bit. He remains a player whose pace & 1v1 defending would complement Botman incredibly well.

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4️⃣ Taylor Harwood-Bellis | £20m | 65% HOPS

With a name that already sounds like an Eddie Howe signing, THB 🔴 was relegated with Southampton & is available at a decent price. Very tidy on the ball, plays an amazing long diagonal & strong in the air. He’d be higher up this list if he was faster across the ground. #NUFC

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🥉 António Silva | £25-35m | 66% HOPS

A integral part of Benfica’s team for three seasons, Silva’s 🔴 defensive positioning & calmness isn’t something that is easily measure by stats but is evident when you watch him play. He’s faster than Schar 🔵 without being insanely quick, matches his ability on the ball & is better in the air.

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🥈 Marc Guehi | £40m-ish | 61% HOPS

There is precisely zero chance that #NUFC do not try to sign Guehi 🔴 this summer. Because of that I’ve watch him a heap this season. His speed is top & his passing is unflashy but so, so good. His 1v1 defending could be better. #NUFC

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🥇Ilya Zabarnyi | £55-65m | 64% HOPS

Following the sale of his defensive partner to Real Madrid, I think it’s deeply unlikely that any club managed to pry Zabarnyi 🔴 ​​out of Bournemouth this summer, but if anything I’ve been more impressed with him than I was with Huijsen this season. #NUFC

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Versatile U22 Central Midfielder

While #NUFC do have Lewis Miley coming through, we’re perhaps lacking a technical midfielder who offers a chance creation/goalscoring threat from the bench to help us break down low blocks from 8.

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Because of this being something of a ‘tweener’ role in the squad, I’m looking for a few key data points 📊

• Possession Adjusted Pressures = 14+

• Line Breaking Passes OBV = 0.03

• Deep Completions = 0.60

• xG Assisted = 0.07+

Ideally, they’d be a left footer able to cover the right wing too. #NUFC

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4️⃣ James McAtee | £20m

With one year left on his deal, I’m hopeful that #NUFC take a swing on McAtee 🔴 at £20m-ish. His data is fragmented, but he’s left-footed, the right height, not rapid (but not slow), a good dribbler with an eye for goal. Howe will fancy his chances of improving his game.

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🥉Badredine Bouanani | £20–25m

I expect Bouanani 🔴 to be linked with a heap of EPL clubs soon. He’s got high cruising speed with the ball, always has his head up & can unlock a defence. Off-ball game needs work, but he’s just 20—Isak would LOVE these throughballs. #NUFC

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🥈Harvey Elliott | 30-40m

Despite his height, a move for Liverpool's Elliott 🔴 feels like a classic Howe deal. Like McAtee, he’s young, versatile & left-footed, but is a much more creative passer, which is what #NUFC need. Lacks top-end speed & needs to work on his shot selection, but works his nuts off.

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🥇Mateus Fernandes | £35–50m

I started looking at Fernandes 🔴 after nufcblog.co.uk said we were tracking the versatile Portuguese midfielder. A right-footer, he’s an excellent corner taker, great technician & very effective in the right half space. Lacks Joelinton’s raw physicality—but who doesn’t? #NUFC

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1st Choice Right Winger

A spot that #NUFC have overlooked for waaaaayyy too long – that cannot be shunted to the next window again.

The dream is an elite left-footed creator like Olise, but finding someone who blends size, pace, graft, & the subtlety to break down low blocks is rare.

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Ideally, we’re looking for a player with the following data 📊 markers:

• Expected goals (xG) = 0.12+

• xG Assisted (xGA) = 0.15+

• Pressure regains = 2+

• Dribble & Carry OBV = 0.05+

#NUFC

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5️⃣ Mohammed Kudus | £60m-ish

Another option who’s a bit too short & pricey to be ideal. Kudus 🔴 hasn’t shown his best at West Ham, with Bowen ahead of him in his preferred role. Even when used at RW, his creative output has been modest. The bet for #NUFC is that Howe could unlock more.

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4️⃣ Francisco Conceição | £25m

The Portuguese winger 🔴 hasn’t had a great time at Juve. Caught up in the turmoil at the Turin giants, it looks like the Serie A side won’t activate the €30m buy option.

He’s shorter than ideal, but has everything else #NUFC wants—at a bargain price.

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🥉Facundo Buonanotte | £40m

I’ve become a bit obsessed with Buonanotte at #NUFC. Stuck behind Minteh & Gruda at Brighton, he hasn’t had a real run—but under Howe, I think he could become a real goalscoring threat. He’s yet to show creative volume, but linked well with Vardy & our patterns of play suit him.

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🥈Bryan Mbuemo | 45-50m

Off the back of a 20-goal season & it being a position of need for #NUFC, this really is as simple as 2+2=4, especially given that Mbuemo 🔴 can cover at Striker too. There is a high comfort level that he hits the ground running at SJP, but…

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…At the prices being discussed, I have concerns. Even though he’s a good finisher, Mbuemo is unlikely to repeat a near 10xG overperformance & won’t be on penalties. It’d be a high-floor, low-ceiling deal, which isn’t a bad thing but maybe you could spend the money more effectively. #NUFC

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🥇Maghnes Akliouche | £50-55m

While I’ve heard he might not pass the ‘no dickheads’ rule, it’s hard to ignore Akliouche’s 🔴 talents & potential fit at #NUFC Signed by Mitchell at Monaco, he’s an elite dribbler & chance creator with good fitness & decent shot volume/selection…

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He has a VERY high cruising speed with the ball at his feet & a good sense of when to knock it into space. What I LOVE is how often he addresses the ball as he runs—it gives him more chances to shift it away from the defender & is reminiscent of Bernardo Silva’s dribbling style. #NUFC

Versatile U22 Wide/Centre Forward

This brings us to the section to last section of this 🧵, a back-up for Alexander Isak, #NUFC’s very own Harry Kane problem (how nice is it to be able to say that about our club btw?).

IMHO we’re looking for someone that offers something close to what Callum Wilson in the 23/24 season.

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Data-wise 📊 we just need someone who occasionally rotate in for Isak & save his legs in the last 20-25 minutes of games:

• Expected goals (xG) = 0.35+

• Shot OBV = 0.10

• xG Assisted (xGA) = 0.05+

• Pressure regains = 1+

#NUFC

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🥉Rafiu Adekunle Durosinmi | £15-20m

Following an ACL injury that scuppered a move to the Bundesliga, Durosinmi 🔴is wanted by both Wolves & Lazio. Available for a wallet friendly price, the Nigerian striker from Viktoria Plzen is a mini-Osimhen. He’d need time to adjust, but I like him a lot. #NUFC

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🥈Mohamed-Ali Cho | £20-25m

One to file into the more versatile end of this position of need, Mohamed-Ali Cho 🔴 is a left footed attacking midfielder, wideman & played up front early in his career for Angers.

If he had more experience, I might’ve proffered his name as 1st choice Right Winger for #NUFC

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🥇Yoane Wissa | £35-40m

At 28 he’s older than you’d ideally like for #NUFC’s recruitment profile, Wissa makes SO MUCH sense. A proven EPL goalscorer whose time left to test himself in the UCL is running out. I’m at least going to talk to his agent about his interest in being Isak's backup.

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4️⃣ PSR & Other Opportunistic Deals

Finally, this is my own personal transfer wildcards section. Deals that make sense from a PSR opportunity or that could be categorised in the Kuol, Minteh, Pivas, Salia & Cordero’s bracket. #NUFC

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Alejandro Garnacho | £30–40m

This might be controversial, but if he passes the character checks—remember Gordon was seen as a nuisance—I’d be all in on a PSR-driven Garnacho move.

3+ shots per 90 for three seasons, ~10 EPL goal contributions behind CR7 at the same age, & at a cut price… Sign me up. #NUFC

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Erik Kojzek | £15-20m

A real fun striker that has a small sample size alert 🚨. Playing in the Austrian Bundesliga & already described as a “mini-Haaland”, Kojzek is still figuring out how to best use his body, but if/when that happens he’ll be a nightmare. #NUFC

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Seriously though, what the actual feck is this Isak vs. Everton levels of nonsense… #NUFC

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Andrija Maksimović | £15m

Look at that radar. Just look at it!!! Whenever a 17 year-old gets into the 1st team you make a note. When they play like that… you make an offer.

✅ Left-footed
✅ Right winger
✅ Tall & Fast

Shut up & talk my money. #NUFC

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Franco Mastantuono | £38m

Then next wonderkid to come out of River Plate is also tall, fast, left footed & plays from the right handside. With a release clause at £38m, good chance someone decides to secure his services ahead of the queue, probs too rich for #NUFC at this stage of our growth.

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And there we have it. I could honestly go on for longer listing out wonderkids I think we should buy & if Sunderland hadn’t have been promoted Chris Rigg would probably be on this list too, but for now I hope you enjoyed this summer’s transfer 🧵

Now let’s see who #NUFC actually sign… HWTL