Newcastle United Summer Transfer Predictions 26/27

A data-led preview of the most uncertain and potentially exciting summer of recruitment since the early days of the PIF-led takeover of Newcastle United.

It’s been a long week after an even longer season. The bruises of a 55+ game campaign that included an unacceptable 17 losses and a 12th-place finish are still fresh, and I’ve finally sat down to look at the squad list with my hands on my head.

With no European football, a squad whose most important personalities are either leaving or well past their prime as Premier League players, and a previous summer’s worth of deals that are currently looking catastrophic, the task ahead of the club this summer feels enormous.

For the first sustained period since the takeover, both Eddie Howe and the wider PIF project are getting questioned out loud rather than just by your impatient mate that spouts off after a few too many or in the heat of a match-day loss.

The project needs a reset. The players know it. The new leadership team knows it. And Eddie Howe knows his future is on the line if we get it wrong again.

Welcome to my fourth annual summer transfer predictions article.

What’s changed?

A new leadership team

Before we get into the analysis itself, we need to take a beat to look at some context, and compared to last summer, the football club’s org chart matters more than usual.

Since the start of the 25/26 season, three new appointments have given Newcastle the strongest senior leadership setup since the takeover:

🟦 Ross Wilson, Director of Football
🟦 Sudarshan Gopaladesikan, Technical Director
🟦 David Hopkinson, CEO

One proper recruitment expert with a good relationship with the manager. One genuinely industry-leading data brain to build the scaffolding that finds hidden gems. And a genuinely industry-hardened, commercial brain who has already shown a knack for communicating with fans.

After successive seasons where decisions were deferred, or made in silos from afar, or without consultation to keep everyone aligned, it feels like the turbulence caused by Ashworth falling out with Staveley and Staveley losing her job because of PSR, then their replacements not hitting the mark, is at an end. Right now, the senior leadership is in better shape than it has been at any point since the takeover.

The Matfen Hall decisions

This leadership group met with PIF and the other owners at the annual meeting at Matfen Hall. From the meeting, two major things that impact this summer’s transfers were agreed:

✅ Howe would be staying in the job

🔁 The club will pivot to a less conservative recruitment profile this summer

For the committed #HoweOut crowd, the first part here will feel like a thorn in the side until he leaves or until results improve considerably. While fan opinion of managers can change quickly (Arteta’s time in charge of Arsenal shows that), Howe needs a quick start to next season, with some statement performances and results, to earn some breathing room again. Without this, the snowball will pick up speed, and by the second international break, he’ll be toast.

Personally speaking, I’ve defended Howe a bundle this season. Largely because I don’t love many of the alternatives in the market, and I think the bill for not renewing the squad frequently enough over the past two and a half seasons came due. While he had money to spend in the summer, the conditions around it were far from ideal, and eventually, off-field messes will find their way onto the pitch. However, he has to own the deals he and Andy Howe led last summer. I hope to see a better return on them in season two. Elanga has been particularly disappointing and doesn’t have any long-term injury (Wissa) or adaptation curve (Woltemade) to really fall back on.

Despite this, I think retaining Howe is, on balance, the most sensible decision. I base this on the belief that the main issue was that this squad had reached the end of its performance window, key players became unsettled after the Isak sale, and a failure of the summer’s recruitment didn’t properly address the aging assets, the lack of depth, and the lack of quality. Given that the team have taken and thrown away leads so often this season, I’d like to see whether it was primarily a manager or player quality issue.

Given how poor both the transfers and the season have ended up being, Howe being forced to concede ground on his conservative, Soft Brexit approach, where EPL experience is sought ahead of talented youngsters from elsewhere, should result in the budget being spread across a higher number of deals. Easing the need to pay the EPL tax, in theory, adds risk. Younger, less-proven players miss more often. But after a window where the EPL experience premium delivered some of our worst returns, the math and public opinion on that trade-off have changed.

Can we have confidence that they can get it right?

Generally, fans tend not to look at a longer body of work of a football club when it comes to results or transfers, so I can understand why some people have little faith that the transfer team will be able to do any better than last summer. But truth be told, it was probably the first window that looked genuinely bad since the PIF takeover.

The same scouts, the same transfer team, and the same final decision maker (Howe) who decided that Isak, Gordon, Botman, Burn, Bruno, Hall, Tonali, and others were worth the fees are still at the club. For the majority of their time, they sit well above the 50% hit transfer success rate that’s standard across the industry. The process last summer broke down, and it’s perhaps not a surprise that the better-performing deals (Thiaw/Ramsey) were long-term targets. With the key people in place and properly aligned for the first time since Ashworth/Staveley left the club, the checks and balances needed to make deals land should be in place again.

Marking last year’s homework

Before I make a bunch of new predictions, it's time to score the old ones just for a bit of fun.

The (kinda) wins

✅ Yoane Wissa was my number one backup centre forward pick. He came in. Tick. We paid waaaaaaaayyyy more than I had pencilled in, and his knee injury took the joy out of celebrating. But a tick is a tick, and maybe he’ll show why he has nearly 50 Premier League goals if he’s still around next season.

✅ Malick Thiaw was 5️⃣ on my CB shortlist, and I included him because Newcastle have a history of returning for players that they like but failed to lure in previous windows.

The misses

❌ James Trafford was my 🥇 GK pick. We came close. Real close. Then Mitchell handled the Burnley side of the talks with the same subtlety he had handled his few weeks at Newcastle. Burnley got angry, dug in on valuations, and Man City swooped in to capitalise. Which didn’t cost this season at all…

❌ Maghnes Akliouche at right wing, Mateus Fernandes in midfield, and Ilya Zabarnyi at centre back were all my 🥇 picks. Two of them ended up at new clubs.

This Season’s Analysis & Predictions

As with previous iterations of these transfer predictions/analysis, I’m going to break things up into sections:

1️⃣ Potential Sales and Loans
2️⃣ Recruitment Strategy
3️⃣ Transfer Targets
4️⃣ Conclusions

And as I’m afforded a little more space by this being a Substack, I’m going to try a few new tricks when it comes to visualising each player’s performance.

1️⃣ Potential Sales and Loans

Before we assess new players, we need to take stock of who’s already here. There’s more uncertainty than last summer. A lot more. More players whose futures genuinely sit in the middle. And a lot of that depends on what bids arrive and whether the club lands its top targets early. I’ve split the senior squad into four buckets:

🔵 Likely Stay
🟠 Uncertain
🔴 Leave (confirmed or near-certain)
⚪ Loan or Youth Team

🔴 Leave

The goalkeeper room is where the largest number of genuinely known changes will come. Ramsdale’s loan ends. Ruddy and Vlachodimos move on. Trippier and Krafth are both out of contract, two long-serving lads who got a proper send-off, and further highlight the need for reinforcements at full back.

In midfield, Willock is gone if a bid lands. Following a genuinely horrible time with Achilles injuries and the addition of Ramsey, plus that on-field spat with Bruno, it feels like it’s time to recoup what we can on little Joe.

Anthony Gordon already has a deal agreed to join Barcelona for 70m plus add-ons (a deal which was agreed in the middle of drafting this). It’s an excellent piece of business, and the fact that it’s happening before I’ve even had the chance to finish this newsletter goes to show that the grown-ups are at the wheel at the club for the first time since Ashworth was in post.

🟠 Uncertain

This is the biggest bucket this year, and that tells you most of what you need to know about the state of the squad.

🥅 Nick Pope. The GK refresh is happening. The question is how deep the cuts are. Does he stay for a year as senior backup and a leader in the room, or does someone come in offering him a starter’s job? That’s a coin toss for me, so I’m leaning toward Pope leaving because this article is more fun that way.

🛡️ Tino Livramento. Interest from teams near the top of the league has been steady for 18 months. If the right number arrives, the math gets uncomfortable. If it doesn’t, he stays, and the new right back signing competes with him.

⚙️ Sandro Tonali. I think he stays on most timelines this summer. But there’s been an awful lot of chatter about his future, and if a Champions League side bids at a high enough number, it probably changes the outcome here.

⚡ Jacob Murphy. 31 in October, and his performances have declined. It’s time to cash in if a buyer materialises with enough money.

🚀 Harvey Barnes. Linked with Aston Villa and at 28 with just two years left on his deal, you have to think the club will listen to offers. His final ball and finishing will be hard to replace; his off-ball work and ability to beat a man will not.

🏃‍♂️‍➡️ Anthony Elanga. It was a truly awful first season at Newcastle United for Elanga, with him barely seeing the field prior to the end of the season. Honestly, if there is genuine interest and we can get some money back on the deal, I think the club would do it; whether the interest is there is the question.

🇩🇪 Nick Woltemade. If he has a great World Cup and a bid materialises, then I’m sure the club will be tempted. If he stays, Howe will have to continue to find ways of unlocking the German International’s potential using the 4-2-3-1 we saw vs. West Ham & Brighton.

🇨🇩 Yoane Wissa. Genuinely up in the air. The knee injury took a year out of his career. I don’t see us finding a buyer, but EPL goals aren’t easy to come by, and maybe someone will take a punt at a price we’d be happy to sell at.

⚪ Loan or Youth Team

Alex Murphy and Park Seung-Soo are the obvious developmental loans. Both need senior minutes. Both will benefit from a year somewhere they’re the focal point.

Cordero and Sanusi probably get another year of senior football abroad. They were both long-term projects. Leo Shahar and Sean Neave probably stick around the first team squad.

🔵 Likely Stay

At the back, Botman, Thiaw, Burn, and probably Schar all stay. For the latter, I think the severity of his injury is a good enough bargaining chip to keep him at the club as depth. It could easily go the way of Callum Wilson, though.

Hall is locked at LB. Gillespie stays as the third/cup keeper while the rest of the room rebuilds. In midfield, Bruno is the captain and categorically goes nowhere. Joelinton, Ramsey, and Miley – who has just signed a new deal – stick around.

Up front, Osula has made a case to compete for the starting striker job at the beginning of next season. None of this group is being shopped, unless a very dramatic bid lands in Ross Wilson’s inbox.

2️⃣ Recruitment Strategy

So if my version of a crystal ball is right (and I’ll be the first to admit I’d be surprised this summer if it was), then these are the players I see leaving:

1️⃣4️⃣ exits across three buckets. 6️⃣ definite or likely. 4️⃣ predicted. 4️⃣ on-loan returns moved on permanently. That helps us free up the wages and fund the fees to continue rebuilding the squad.

8️⃣ signings to fill 8️⃣ gaps. Twenty-five senior places at the end of it. When it comes to the wingers, I think all bets are off, and it’s particularly hard to predict. So I’ve stuck with Elanga at the club purely because I’m not sure we received a bid that we would accept a heavy loss on so soon after forking out for him.

The updated recruitment profile

The checklist that has been the bedrock of most of the deals we’ve done to date is remaining, with one key change.

✅ Tall (around 180cm)
✅ 25 or younger
✅ Fast & hard-working
❌ EPL or Major European experience

As previously stated, reporting before and the Matfen Hall meetings, plus Wilson and Gopaladesikan’s appointments, point to more data-backed gambles on younger players with first-team experience in non-top-5 league teams. That doesn’t prohibit buying players with EPL experience or dropping the rest of Howe’s standards – he has to work with the players after all – what changes is the willingness to bet on players who haven’t already proven it in the EPL. When we find a bona fide talent, the eventual profits should also be higher.

The Woltemade question

This is the tactical pivot point of the whole window. If Woltemade stays, the team can settle into a 4-2-3-1 with him in the 10. Bruno and Tonali behind, the front three running around him, Wissa or Osula leading the line.

If he goes, the 4-3-3 becomes the default. Tonali drops to the base, Bruno shifts to an 8, the new CM signing comes into the XI as the other 8. The shape Howe used most of 23/24.

My instinct is that Woltemade stays, and Howe flips between both shapes based on opposition and form. 4-2-3-1 against teams that defend deeper and need to be unlocked. 4-3-3 against teams who need to be pressed and run through.

Either way, the squad has to be built to support both. The 8 signings are designed to do that.

Newcastle United’s final shopping list

This leaves us needing to do EIGHT deals. Two more than last summer, which sits at the very top of the scale of what’s likely to happen. But because this is for a bit of fun, and it means I can include more in a summer where sales will dictate what happens, even though it’s unlikely I’m rolling with it. It breaks down as:

🥅 A new starting goalkeeper
🥅 A new young backup goalkeeper
🛡️ A new starting right back
🛡️ A younger FB or CB for squad cover
⚙️ A new central midfielder
🪶 x2 new starting wingers (squad-aged)
🌱 A younger winger

Budget? Hard to call exactly. Really depends on sales, and I’m predicting both Gordon and Livramento leaving. Should also say that players who have been heavily linked with the club will be given some priority too, because, despite transfer gossip being rubbish, some are genuinely credible.

3️⃣ Transfer Targets

Backup/Starting Goalkeepers

The performances of both Nick Pope and Aaron Ramsdale have left a lot to be desired this past season. Pope’s regression has become pretty clear, and his skills as a shot stopper are no longer enough to ignore his kicking. Ramsdale… well, aside from the occasional great piece of shot-stopping, he never inspired confidence in fans or his backline.

In data form 📊, this includes the following filtering criteria:

• Taller than 188cm and slightly older players (28) allowed

• -0.08 GK On-Ball Value (OBV) & above

• Positive Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) & above

• High Aggressive Distance (ability to sweep behind a high line)

• Evidence of passing under pressure

Pretty tricky to predict who and what will actually be the #1 & #2 choices here, and a big part of me thinks that they’ll just ask Pope to be backup to whomever they decide to add. However, it’s just a bit of fun, so why not suggest a full suite of names that could join the club?

Backup Goalkeepers

🥉 James Beadle | Brighton - £12m to £18m

I’m not convinced England U21 would move from Brighton to Newcastle without some assurances of genuine minutes as at least a cup goalkeeper, but with Brighton already having Verbruggen as number 1, Steele as a solid number 2, and Rushworth, who played in goal for Coventry’s promotion campaign, pathways to the first team look light for Beadle. Though he had a so-so season at Birmingham, he has real potential, and a right-sized bid will always be considered by Bloom and co. Doubtful, but I’d probably ask the question.

🥈 Daniel Peretz | Bayern Munich - £6.5m to £7m

Peretz enjoyed a frankly incredible season in stopping +7.47 goals above the average for Southampton’s net while on loan from Bayern Munich. Some of his parries of shots fire off with as much energy as the shot itself, it’s kinda nuts. The Israeli keeper who moved to the Bavarian giants after an excellent 22/23 at Maccabi Haifa has endured a couple of failed loan moves (it’s not just Newcastle who this happens to) before his stint on the South Coast of England. Southampton had an €8 million option to buy the shot stopper bundled into the loan deal, which might be too rich for them now. The opportunity to come to an EPL and fight for the first team shirt should be enough to tempt him to the North East.

🥇 Ewen Jaouen | Stade De Reims - £17m to £18m

The noise surrounding a move to the North East for Jaouen is pretty loud right now. Because of his age, I instinctively don’t think this projected move is part of the starting 11; however, I can see why Newcastle United are in for him. Some goalkeepers project calm and assuredness in the way they go about their game; Jaouen has this by the bucketload. He’s very strong with the ball at his feet and happy to play under pressure. I’ve seen him Cruyff-turn once and only get the odd yip when under pressure. His positioning is generally excellent, and he handles one-on-one situations well, patiently waiting for the right moment to close down the angles. This calm perhaps comes at the cost of aggression off the line – mainly from open play – but that’s small potatoes.

Rather than risk the wrath of the copyright police here on Substack, for each of my top picks, I’ll share a little YouTube compilation of their best moments. These always make players look much better than they really are, but still fun.

Starting Goalkeepers

🥉 Alexander Nübel | Bayern Munich - £10m

Distribution is Nübel’s most defining quality. The volume of passes that break opposition defensive lines is exceptional among goalkeeper peers, and the accuracy of those line-breaking deliveries is well above average. He’s left-footed, and his weaker right foot looks like Pope’s natural passing. At Bayern, he’s been shown to be happy playing behind a high line; he just happened to be behind one of the greatest keepers of a generation. No biggie. If paired with a younger GK for succession planning, then his age isn’t a problem.

🥈 Lucas Chevalier | PSG - £25m to £34m

Replacing Donnarumma would be no easy task for any goalkeeper, and – so far at least – Lucas Chevalier has struggled to meet the lofty expectations of fans in the Parc des Princes. Some mistakes across the first half of the season, followed by an injury, saw the young GK lose his starting spot. Rumours suggest that Monaco is interested, and PSG is prepared to sell. This would be classic buying the dip from Newcastle. Chevalier is an elite shot stopper with a bruised reputation, but I do think this is the one position on the field where Howe will demand conservative targeting.

🥇 James Trafford (Man City) - £30m to £40m+

Yes. That guy again. Newcastle have tried and failed twice to get Trafford over the line and between the posts at St James’ Park. I cannot see a single reason as to why they won’t at least try again. With Champions League-bound Aston Villa rumoured to be interested and rumours of Trafford’s new pay slips busting our wage structure, we may have missed our window. He pulled off a few fantastic saves against Newcastle in each of the cup games he played against us, and his shot-stopping has always popped on the data. He’s much better with his feet than Pope, too.

Maybe Newcastle will make it third time lucky, and Ross Wilson will make Howe very happy about his goalkeeping situation this summer.

Starting Right Back

With Livramento and Trippier leaving, we’re looking at another complete reset in this position. What we’re looking for is a player who fuses the best of both men’s games – Tino’s 1v1 defending/carrying & Trippier’s quality in the final third – so Lewis Hall effectively.

Boiled down to data 📊, I’m filtering this by prioritising:

• Strong 1 v 1 defending (Tack/Drib Past %)

• Decent Line Breaking Pass (LBP) OBV and/or Dribble & Carry OBV

• Ideally decent Deep Progressions & Open Play xG Assisted

Finding ALL of these qualities in a single full back is gonna be tricky, which is why Lewis Hall will be up with the best in the world as he continues to develop.

With a good amount of competitions covered and filters applied, this gives me a universe of around 30 players to sift through, see scatterplot below 🔽

While Sugawara looks like a clear outlier here for both metrics, his all-around defensive contributions and aerial ability are poor, and his previous failure to adapt to the physicality of the Premier League and Championship is a clear red flag 🚩 for me. So we’re left highlighting three defenders who we place at different points on the Livramento-to-Trippier playstyle scale.

🥉 Michael Kayode | Brentford - £35m to £50m

Kayode would be the most expensive option of my three picks. Brentford only signed him last summer, and they aren’t famous for selling cheap. Kayode does have a very interesting set of skills. You get a genuine long-throw specialist with elite delivery, a defender who is properly stiff against 1v1 dribblers, and stronger in the air at 61% chance of winning an aerial duel vs. the average player (see HOPS explainer to see how that’s calculated) to Tino’s 54%. Tino has the edge in buildup. His Line Breaking Pass OBV and Dribble & Carry OBV both read higher than Kayode’s. But Kayode delivers the better final ball: Open Play xG Assisted (xGA) is 0.04 to Tino’s 0.02. Almost double the chance creation per 90.

🥈 Iván Fresneda, Sporting CP - £30m to £40m

Fresneda’s price has crept up with reported interest from multiple clubs, which includes heavy hitters like Arsenal, Man City and other European giants. Whether those clubs feel enough confidence to make the young Spaniard a starter (as opposed to testing Newcastle’s resolve with a bid for Tino) remains to be seen. What you get is the most rounded profile in the realistic candidate pool. Better in the air than Tino is putting it mildly: Fresneda’s 76% HOPS is the 98th percentile in Primeira Liga to Tino’s 54% (51st in the EPL). His final-ball threat is four times Tino’s at 0.08 Open Play xG Assisted (xGA) to 0.02, and his Deep Completions nearly triple at 0.36 to 0.12 per 90.

🥇 Alberto Costa (Baio), Porto - £25 to £35m

Alberto Costa is FC Porto’s first-choice right back, 22 years old, and the kind of profile I’d target to replace Tino this summer. Though he’s not long moved to Porto from Juve, Porto sells routinely to the bigger European leagues, so even if the number above ends up being a little low, I think they’d be willing sellers. In the defensive third, Costa – who can also play at centre back – makes nearly twice the tackles and interceptions per game (3.3 to 1.7), and wins his 1v1 defensive duels 82% of the time. He’s also better in the air: a 66% HOPS rating to 54%.

While Costa’s 2.2 fouls per game look poor on paper, where he’s fouling on the pitch soothes my nerves. Most come from aggressive pressing in midfield and higher up the pitch. His desire to get stuck in lands him in hot water in the Primeira Liga in a way that is less likely to be punished in the EPL.

In the final third, Costa’s open-play chance creation sits in the top 2% of Primeira Liga right-backs, and he recorded 7 assists from just under 5 xG created for his teammates last season.

In our new world of swinging for superstars before they become super-expensive, this spicy boi is my top pick.

⚖️ Alternatives if Livramento ends up staying…

Before we move on to the next position, I wanted to highlight someone who looks like a bargain for a Premier League team this summer. Tristan Crama only recently joined Millwall from Brentford’s B team after failing to break into the Bees’ first team squad after a few loans. The Frenchman has legitimately split his time playing between right back and centre back, and looked legitimately good in both positions. Everton are rumoured to be thinking of taking a swing on his talent. Maybe Brentford let one slip away?

Or perhaps, next season will be the time when Leo Shahar gets a full-time promotion to the regular matchday squad. Fans are critical of Howe’s protectiveness of younger players, but as we saw with Lewis Hall’s early appearances, it’s a difficult role for even the most talented youngsters to get to grips with.

Younger Full Back / Centre Back

With both Burn and potentially Schar staying put, the removal of European football makes the need for another first-choice centre back a little less pressing. While I do think there’s a chance we may try to address it by signing the sort of young hybrid full-back/centre back that Arteta favours, I’d much rather have an actual backup to Lewis Hall so Burn’s creaking legs aren’t being tested by wingers quite so often.

Which leaves us with the same data 📊 criteria as before, but with more of an eye on height and HOPS score:

• Aged 22 or below to reflect likely squad role

• Left side a priority, potentially tall with a decent HOPS rating

• Strong 1 v 1 defending (Tack/Drib Past %)

• Decent Line Breaking Pass (LBP) OBV and/or Dribble & Carry OBV

• Ideally decent Deep Progressions & Open Play xG Assisted

Covering 17 competitions worldwide that would have a chance of not needing a strong loan or prolonged period in the U21s before stepping into the first team picture, then we’re left with just over 20 players.

I’m deliberately ignoring West Ham’s Diouf here as I think someone else in Europe will promise him a starting role, plus I don’t think he’s any good as a defender yet, which leaves us with three…

🥉 Michał Gurgul, Lech Poznan | £5m to £8m

Polish Ekstraklasa starter at 20, with Poland U21 minutes to match. Genuinely progressive ball-player at left back, the kind who moves the team up the pitch from defensive positions. Defends his channel well, with modest aerial output at 56%. He’s a project, though, and would need a lot of time developing physically… more on that in a bit.

🥈 Nhoa Sangui, Paris FC | £10m to £15m

First-choice left back for Paris FC through their first top-flight season since 1979. Standout 1v1 defender, rarely beaten off the dribble, with a 64% aerial win rate from a 178cm frame. Open-play progressive passing is strong too: he moves the ball cleanly into the middle third without forcing it.

🥇 Joaquin Seys, Club Brugge | £20m to £25m

Played 2,700+ minutes for Brugge in 25/26 across the Belgian Pro League and the Champions League. Strong 1v1 defender who's hard to beat off the dribble, with decent aerial work from a 178cm frame. Passing is competent rather than elite, but his defensive baseline is already pretty good, and he can beat the press via dribbling in a way that will satisfy Newcastle fans looking for a genuine alternative to Hall.

Want some proof? Well, here you go Newcastle fans… 🔽

Can they cut it physically in the Premier League?

Their on-ball performance data is all well and good, but when you’re dealing with younger players, especially those from leagues below the top 5 level, their ability to meet the physical demands of the Premier League is a question that is key.

Despite the top speed of all three potential additions being basically the same as Lewis Hall, the volume and distances they need to cover at a sprint or high speed differ dramatically. Seys and Sangui are not too far away, but Gurgul would take more time to meet the levels required.

The issue of whether a player can really withstand the physical levels of the Premier League sits at the forefront of recruiters’ minds. So much so that players like Gurgul are not really considered first-team level despite breaking into the first team at a tender age. It’s why players like the heavily linked French left back/centre back hybrid Dayann Methalie become so prized even when his on-ball play falls short in some areas compared to players like Gurgul, who may never be able to hang with athletes at the top level.

When you compare the two physically, you can see why so many top clubs are linked to the young Frenchman and why they’re more willing to bet on Methalie’s on-ball data improving with exposure to more first-team football. As the old adage goes, you can’t teach speed.

It’s why you see Newcastle United taking calculated gambles on young players with the right sorts of on-ball or physical skills in the hope that one or the other will develop to make them useful to the first team squad.

Squad Central Midfielder

So I’m predicting that Newcastle United will sell Willock but not Tonali, but there is definitely the potential for the Italian to leave this summer. Even if he doesn’t, I do think this is an area of the team where proper succession planning and getting his replacement through the door while he’s here is sensible.

Because of this, I’m going to search for a player capable of playing as a defensive midfielder and as one of the ‘eights’ in the 433 system, and because this is a place in this system that requires so much damn running, I’m going to include athleticism as a gating factor too. For that, I’m looking for a few key data points 📊

• Tonali-like levels of athletic ability

• The ability to play under pressure (D&C OBV & Pressured Pass %)

• Deep Progressions 4.5+

• High Defensive OBV

• Evidence of open play chance creation

• Evidence of the ability to cope with Howe’s pressing style

With our other recruitment factors taken into account, we’re left with a universe of 26 players to pick from.

🥉 Arthur Atta | Udinese - £25m to £35m

Atta is a Serie A starter at 23 who runs at above-Tonali intensity per match (15.8 sprints, 42.3 HSR count). The on-ball case is built more around dribble-carries than passing volume, but his physical baseline means he could step into the Willock rotation role immediately and has the capacity to transition into a high-intensity pressing system that Howe will demand.

🥈 Kees Smit | AZ Alkmaar - £45m to £65m

Smit is one of the Eredivisie's most progressive ball-carriers at 20, with a Dribble & Carry OBV that sits nearly double the positional average. His ceiling reads as a future ball-progressor in the Bruno mould, and right now, he gives Howe more options than Willock did in the squad. Pressure numbers are in line with what we’d be after, and his performances this season have helped quell some of the concerns about his ability to make the step up to more athletic competition.

🥇 Lamine Camara | AS Monaco - £40m to £50m

Camara is a Champions League starter at 22 with top-5 league experience. He has the pressing intensity Howe needs from a midfielder, he’s good under pressure and another chance-creator, which is something the midfielder needs to take the pressure off of Guimaraes. He’s wayyyyyy shorter than Howe would normally prefer, but I’m taking the volume of links from credible North East journos as a sign that he’s happy to proceed. He has everything else, including long legs for a lad his size and is a bona fide starting option from day one and gives Wilson more confidence to be patient on a potential Tonali sale in the future windows.

Starting Wingers Plus Young Wingers

Now to the real area where Newcastle suffered so badly last season, in attack. While I’m betting on there being a lack of buyers for Woltemade and Wissa, I’m also banking on the two plus Osula performing better next season with the help of THREE new wingers. Two ready to start first team players and one younger winger.

All in all, I’m looking to narrow this down to seven potential attackers, using the following data points:

• xG of above 0.19

• Open Play xG Assisted of above 0.05

• D&C OBV above 0.05

• Pressures of above 10 but ideally closer to 16

I’ll also be doing a comparison of each player physically to Gordon. He’s Howe’s ideal winger, and while Newcastle need more technicians who can help us break down set defences, they still have to be able to do the work required.

That takes us down to a population of 60+ players, which you can see below 🔽

Younger Wingers

🥈 Said El Mala | FC Köln - £35m to £50m

El Mala leads the entire candidate pool on non-penalty xG at 0.38, which is the kind of output line you don't expect from a 19-year-old in his first full Bundesliga season. His creation numbers run lower at 0.06 xG assisted; this is a finisher first, the closest profile to the role Harvey Barnes plays when he comes in to break a game open.

Physically, he sits below Gordon across the board, which is what you'd expect at 19. Goal-scoring is the hardest thing in the game, so his physical progression will hopefully follow.

🥇 Ibrahim Maza | Bayer Leverkusen - £25m to £40m

Maza posts 0.27 non-penalty xG and 0.13 open-play xG assisted across 1,311 Bundesliga minutes at 20. His Dribble and Carry OBV at 0.20 ranks above most of the senior shortlist; the upside lives in the work he does once the ball arrives at his feet.

Sprint count and sprint distance both sit well below Gordon, but high-speed running distance is the closest match of any young winger in the shortlist. A volume runner more than a sprinter, he should target acceleration as part of his development ahead of his aerobic base.

Here’s a comp for you to feast your eyes on of the young forward.

Starting Wingers

5️⃣ Maghnes Akliouche | Monaco - £45m to £60m

Akliouche was my number one right winger pick last summer, and I haven’t changed my mind on the player, just where he fits in a post-Isak/Gordon world. Three full Ligue 1 seasons behind him at 24, 0.23 non-penalty xG and 0.09 open-play xG assisted, and he’s at five this season because I think he offers similar qualities to Woltemade, and we need to surround Nick with pace.

Akliouche sits well below Gordon on every sprint metric. Signing him would mark the clearest break from the Howe-era recruitment blueprint to date.

4️⃣ Antonio Nusa | RB Leipzig - £35m to £50m

Nusa splits his output across both shooting and creation. His 0.19 non-penalty xG isn’t really anything to write home about, but 0.17 open-play xG assisted is rarer if not quite hitting the heights of purple patch Jacob Murphy to Isak levels of chance creation. With three years of top-five league football at 21 already, he’s ready for the next step in his career, but there is a caveat.

Nusa’s sprint volume and distance sit well below Gordon; his high-speed running is closer, but his profile is glide-and-burst rather than press-and-sprint. The physical step to the Premier League for him in this Newcastle team feels big, and he would need time to acclimatise before he was ready to start week-in, week-out.

🥉 Abde Ezzalzouli | Real Betis - £22m to £32m

Ezzalzouli profiles as a well-rounded dual-threat wide forward, 0.32 xG paired with 0.15 xG assisted from a Betis role built around starting moves and feeding runners. He also posts one of the higher pressure volumes in the pool at 18.6 per 90, which matters under any successor to Howe's pressing template. Worth flagging that Barcelona hold a 20% sell-on from his earlier move out of La Masia. You'd wonder if his name came up at all when the Gordon-to-Barca paperwork was on the table.

Some small gaps here, but sprint count and sprint distance sit within touching distance of Gordon. The high-speed running gap is the only meaningful spread between them.

🥈 Christos Tzolis | Club Brugge - £28m to £40m

Tzolis sits at the top of the entire candidate pool for non-penalty xG and open-play xG assisted at 0.37 and 0.31 per 90. He's the only winger on the board who looks capable of carrying a game as a scorer and a creator inside the same 90 minutes.

The Belgian Pro League pace has to be taxed when reading his physical numbers, but his high-speed running distance already matches Gordon, and his on-ball data looks Premier League-ready.

🥇 Mathias Fernandez-Pardo | Lille - £45m to £60m

Pardo is the most balanced output player in the shortlist, posting 0.28 non-penalty xG and 0.15 open-play xG assisted across 28 Ligue 1 starts. He breaks a game from either side of the ball at 21, with a Lille team that turns to him as a starter rather than a runner off the bench. He can play up front, on either wing and is the prototypical Howe winger.

Physically, Pardo lands within two sprints and 25 metres of Gordon on every physical metric. The closest match in the whole shortlist, and it makes him the no-brainer number 1 pick here.

The links to Newcastle United are building. Will he come? Only time will tell, but I hope so.

4️⃣ Conclusions

This is the biggest summer Newcastle have had since the takeover. The 25/26 squad bottomed out, the previous window misfired, and Howe is one bad start away from being toast. None of that gets fixed without a window that lands.

I have more confidence in the people making the calls than I have in years. Wilson, Gopaladesikan and Hopkinson are the strongest senior trio the club has had since PIF arrived. The Matfen Hall pivot to less conservative recruitment is the single most important decision of the window, because it changes the kind of player the club is now willing to take a swing on. If the eight deals above, or something close to them, all land, the squad walks into August younger, deeper, faster, and properly fit for both shapes Howe is likely to use.

Will it all go to plan? Of course not. Transfers never do, and predictions like these are wrong as often as they’re right. But if Wilson and his team deliver six or seven of the eight, this is the window that finally resets the project and gives Howe the squad he needs to spend the season proving his doubters wrong.

If you’ve made it this far, I owe you a pint. Drop your own predictions in the comments, and I’ll see you in the Strawberry next season.