As a non-Newcastle fan, feel that Howe has solved harder problems than this one. The framework is intact, the numbers aren’t catastrophic, and a lot of what’s going wrong is teachable and timing-related.
Still the warning is real: transitions don’t last forever, and if Wissa’s return and a fit back line don’t bring that attacking clarity back by early spring, the conversation shifts from patience to reckoning.
For now, though, this still looks like growing pains which I can understand is frustrating.
One thing this highlights for me is that Jacob Murphy doesn't get enough praise. He was massive for us last season and is the best winger we have right now because he link-up, cross, and shoot the ball. He's not the fastest out there, but he's more likely to get a cross in than just about any winger in the league. Elanga's best hope is for the ball to be hit out for a corner...every time.
I'm not really trying to knock Elanga, but he's going to need more time to adapt to his teammates if he's going to succeed and I'm worried there's a confidence problem there that won't be solved at least until the team starts gelling better, which may somewhat rely on him stepping up a level...so it becomes a bit of a negative feedback loop (as opposed to a positive one if the team's doing great and that pushes him to do better...helping the team...etc.). I think the confidence thing is hitting the whole team, but it's really hard to have a massive shift there because it has to snap everybody out of it. Sometimes it's the "silly" stuff like an inflatable unicorn pool party (lol) that lifts the team spirits and helps push them past that. I know Howe and co. are aware of those effects and there's been plenty of stories and evidence of them doing exactly that.
Anyway, great article. Lots of moving pieces, but that's football. I think the impact of Tino and Hall being out is huge. I also think relying on one central forward for 3 games per week is not going to last no matter who they are. It'll lead to injury, goal-droughts, or both because it's too much load. Wissa is definitely a big miss. Even when Isak was here, Wilson was supposed to be the alternate that could slot right in, but injuries and inconsistent form before he left prevented that from being effective. Wissa and Woltemade give you two different options up from to pick whatever lock is in front of you, and sometimes you can play them together too in an ideal world. I don't think Osula is there yet, but that's a catch-22 of he needs minutes to get there, but he's not there so he won't get minutes.
Not quite the season we were hoping for so far, but I think there'll be great moments (already have been...a particular Burn header and Woltemade goal come to mind) and in the long term we'll be able to build on it. I'm curious what January transfers will look like (in and out) and if we'll have any big surprises due to trying to really commit to shifting what our attack looks like.
In a vacuum, I like the Elanga signing. I think he's been unlucky not to have contributed by now and nowhere near as bad as is being made out in some quarters. However, I wonder whether we'd have gone for a completely different profile of player had we known it was Woltemade to be coming through the door as Isak's replacement. A left footed Harvey Barnes-esque profile rather than another creator...
Another great piece, always feel much more informed and slightly more rational about the team after reading your thoughts. Cheers Kev.
In theory, the pace of the wingers we currently have should work well with Woltemade's style and help them get in behind the defense from the space he creates by checking to. The pattern is something they are still getting comfortable with, and that Bruno, Tonali, and Joelinton are getting used to as well. I think back to early days with Isak and some of the patterns they had to figure out on the RHS were a similar challenge, but a different part of the pitch. Hall's passing range has definitely impacted the LHS of progression, and I think teams squeezing us vertically has led to seeing Joelinton's technical level exposed a bit more and some really poor/cheap giveaways. Building new habits is really difficult; ideally, you start simple in training (walk through, full speed w/no pressure, etc) and add pressure, direction, and decision-making, then go test in game. But we are jumping straight into that while building these. Full faith in Howe and his staff to work this out, and in the players' abilities to adapt. Cheers on the great content Kev, can't thank you enough for how much I have learned and applied in my own coaching career.
Great stuff! One stat that stood out to me was how rarely woltemade is getting into box or shots in transition. I have him with 0 in transition shots, Isak obviously was great at that and play style is so geared toward that with lack of efficiency and major directness it’s a big clash right now. Your numbers similar?
We’re generating loads of shots from pressures, in our own half I’ve observed sections within games of us moving the ball slower with the ball at times, but overall vertically is the same. The numbers about tackles in the final third Adams video aren’t correct, but a weird effect of how some data is collected.
Fundamentally we’re not involving Woltemade enough and with enough efficiency. Wingers on both sides need to help make it work but they’re learning on the job rather than on the training pitch atm.
We’re still moving the ball at a similar pace to goal just the dynamics between the three aren’t right. That example vs. Brentford, Barnes pulls it back to an area that he thinks strikers should be, pull it back a little more and Woltemade is running onto it. It’s all fixable, just takes time.
Or is it just counting successful attacks that end in shots? I don’t quite get how passive team gets after takeaways (I think least vertical in league) but then overall are most vertical passers
Right, got you. Yup, Pace towards measures attacks that end in shots. So we're only seeing success in similarly paced attacks as the previous season. Making that repeatable and increasing the quality when Woltemade is on the pitch is the key for us. Wissa being fit should give as a bit more bandwidth to not fail in the spotlight quite so much, Though AFCON is coming and we could have similar problems with integration. Time on task will help though.
As a non-Newcastle fan, feel that Howe has solved harder problems than this one. The framework is intact, the numbers aren’t catastrophic, and a lot of what’s going wrong is teachable and timing-related.
Still the warning is real: transitions don’t last forever, and if Wissa’s return and a fit back line don’t bring that attacking clarity back by early spring, the conversation shifts from patience to reckoning.
For now, though, this still looks like growing pains which I can understand is frustrating.
Yup. He’s enough credit in the bank to survive some extreme bumps but that goodwill won’t last forever.
One thing this highlights for me is that Jacob Murphy doesn't get enough praise. He was massive for us last season and is the best winger we have right now because he link-up, cross, and shoot the ball. He's not the fastest out there, but he's more likely to get a cross in than just about any winger in the league. Elanga's best hope is for the ball to be hit out for a corner...every time.
I'm not really trying to knock Elanga, but he's going to need more time to adapt to his teammates if he's going to succeed and I'm worried there's a confidence problem there that won't be solved at least until the team starts gelling better, which may somewhat rely on him stepping up a level...so it becomes a bit of a negative feedback loop (as opposed to a positive one if the team's doing great and that pushes him to do better...helping the team...etc.). I think the confidence thing is hitting the whole team, but it's really hard to have a massive shift there because it has to snap everybody out of it. Sometimes it's the "silly" stuff like an inflatable unicorn pool party (lol) that lifts the team spirits and helps push them past that. I know Howe and co. are aware of those effects and there's been plenty of stories and evidence of them doing exactly that.
Anyway, great article. Lots of moving pieces, but that's football. I think the impact of Tino and Hall being out is huge. I also think relying on one central forward for 3 games per week is not going to last no matter who they are. It'll lead to injury, goal-droughts, or both because it's too much load. Wissa is definitely a big miss. Even when Isak was here, Wilson was supposed to be the alternate that could slot right in, but injuries and inconsistent form before he left prevented that from being effective. Wissa and Woltemade give you two different options up from to pick whatever lock is in front of you, and sometimes you can play them together too in an ideal world. I don't think Osula is there yet, but that's a catch-22 of he needs minutes to get there, but he's not there so he won't get minutes.
Not quite the season we were hoping for so far, but I think there'll be great moments (already have been...a particular Burn header and Woltemade goal come to mind) and in the long term we'll be able to build on it. I'm curious what January transfers will look like (in and out) and if we'll have any big surprises due to trying to really commit to shifting what our attack looks like.
In a vacuum, I like the Elanga signing. I think he's been unlucky not to have contributed by now and nowhere near as bad as is being made out in some quarters. However, I wonder whether we'd have gone for a completely different profile of player had we known it was Woltemade to be coming through the door as Isak's replacement. A left footed Harvey Barnes-esque profile rather than another creator...
Another great piece, always feel much more informed and slightly more rational about the team after reading your thoughts. Cheers Kev.
In theory, the pace of the wingers we currently have should work well with Woltemade's style and help them get in behind the defense from the space he creates by checking to. The pattern is something they are still getting comfortable with, and that Bruno, Tonali, and Joelinton are getting used to as well. I think back to early days with Isak and some of the patterns they had to figure out on the RHS were a similar challenge, but a different part of the pitch. Hall's passing range has definitely impacted the LHS of progression, and I think teams squeezing us vertically has led to seeing Joelinton's technical level exposed a bit more and some really poor/cheap giveaways. Building new habits is really difficult; ideally, you start simple in training (walk through, full speed w/no pressure, etc) and add pressure, direction, and decision-making, then go test in game. But we are jumping straight into that while building these. Full faith in Howe and his staff to work this out, and in the players' abilities to adapt. Cheers on the great content Kev, can't thank you enough for how much I have learned and applied in my own coaching career.
Just play him with Osula in a 4-4-2 system it is not that difficult.
Not sure you'd like the off ball implications of that change
Great stuff! One stat that stood out to me was how rarely woltemade is getting into box or shots in transition. I have him with 0 in transition shots, Isak obviously was great at that and play style is so geared toward that with lack of efficiency and major directness it’s a big clash right now. Your numbers similar?
We’re generating loads of shots from pressures, in our own half I’ve observed sections within games of us moving the ball slower with the ball at times, but overall vertically is the same. The numbers about tackles in the final third Adams video aren’t correct, but a weird effect of how some data is collected.
Fundamentally we’re not involving Woltemade enough and with enough efficiency. Wingers on both sides need to help make it work but they’re learning on the job rather than on the training pitch atm.
We’re still moving the ball at a similar pace to goal just the dynamics between the three aren’t right. That example vs. Brentford, Barnes pulls it back to an area that he thinks strikers should be, pull it back a little more and Woltemade is running onto it. It’s all fixable, just takes time.
But isn’t that sort of “failed” vertical attacks?
Or is it just counting successful attacks that end in shots? I don’t quite get how passive team gets after takeaways (I think least vertical in league) but then overall are most vertical passers
Depends on what you'd define as success. Sometimes, just moving the ball away from your goal IS the goal.
Is an attack that ends in a corner success? I think so. Arsenal fans would too
I guess I mean what is the pace toward goal stat measuring? Just all possessions or only ones ending in shots?
Right, got you. Yup, Pace towards measures attacks that end in shots. So we're only seeing success in similarly paced attacks as the previous season. Making that repeatable and increasing the quality when Woltemade is on the pitch is the key for us. Wissa being fit should give as a bit more bandwidth to not fail in the spotlight quite so much, Though AFCON is coming and we could have similar problems with integration. Time on task will help though.