Opinion: Newcastle United's failed transfer window was the result of poor planning by PIF & Eales.

Poorly managed changes at the very top, leads to the worst transfer window of the post-takeover era.

Hello folks 👋, sorry for the radio silence recently. Life has given me the exciting opportunity to experience a new timezone for a while, so you might find me a little less active/responsive on Twitter. Expect more of my spicy takes to appear here and directly in your inbox.

As with any big life move, it involves a sh*t tonne of admin, stress, and anxiety. So I’ve had little to no bandwidth left to write about the unsatisfactory conclusion to Newcastle United's summer transfer window. I have thoughts...

In a previous iteration of the person you know as ‘Kev the stats wanker from #NUFC Twitter’ I used to work as a consultant in organisational change management. Basically, if circumstances at your work forced you to change the tools, equipment, processes, reporting lines, etc, etc, it was my job to ensure that you could continue to do your work efficiently the moment they switched off all of your familiar systems or ways of working.

What does any of that have to do with Newcastle United’s summer? Well, a heap of the theory which supports that sort of work is independent of the industry you apply it to. While there are plenty of models to choose from, the Kübler-Ross change curve (see image below) underpinned my old work. It’s pretty simple, there are five stages (shock and denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance) people who are affected by change need to move through. It takes planning, time, effort and resources to do without friction.

No matter what they do for a living people universally hate change unless it is managed well. Let me tell you, change at Newcastle United this summer has been managed very poorly by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), Darren Eales and Paul Mitchell.

It starts with changes at the top…

Why haven’t I included Howe in that initial list? Well, while he’s not blameless (more on this later), change was imposed on Howe by PIF and Eales. He went into the summer with certain expectations about who he’d be working with, operated within the existing structures on plans for the summer, had already agreed on the shortlisted transfer targets, knew the budget, and understood the process for buying and selling players.

Then one morning, he came into work and (reportedly) was told with an hour’s notice that everything would be changing. The bosses he trusted would no longer be his bosses, and he would be reporting to someone new. Everything he and his colleagues at the club had worked on for the past few months was now up in the air. Oh and this new guy called Bunce was going to review his training methods to ensure there were fewer injuries. It’s not a cocktail that makes one feel at ease. While I don’t necessarily think Howe should have expressed his concerns so publicly, with England sniffing around for his signature, he played his hand.

The truth is that PIF/Eales could have done more to avoid such a situation at a pressured time. After failing to manage PSR/FFP appropriately, the decision to move on from Staveley and Ghodoussi—who are not experienced football executives—was the right one in the long term. However, making such a disruptive change in the middle of a transfer window feels impulsive from PIF.

For those of us who follow updates on Companies House, it’s long been clear that Staveley and Ghodoussi’s time in charge of the club would be limited. Each time PIF and the Reuben brothers invested new capital into the club, their shareholding would reduce, creating a natural endpoint to their time as owners. But given that the size of the PSR black hole was known before January (hence all the links with players potentially leaving), why did PIF wait until midway through the transfer window to make the change?

One could argue they expected Bruno Guimaraes to be sold to cover the PSR shortfall, but should a player sale define the leadership of Newcastle United Football Club? Personally, I don’t think so. Rather than letting the ship get so close to the iceberg, why not make the change once the January window had closed? Why let Staveley chase the appointment of Freedman if she wasn’t going to remain in charge? It doesn’t feel like joined-up thinking from PIF or Eales; it feels more egotistical, and that worries me.

Mitchell joins with a big reputation but makes some poor initial choices…

But so what? Newcastle United have appointed one of the biggest, most respected Sporting Directors in global football, and that can only be good, right? RIGHT? In the fullness of time, I expect Mitchell to have a transformational effect on Newcastle United. He’s an expert at identifying talented players around the world before others and trading those players to benefit his employer. It’s the ONLY way Newcastle will be able to quickly bridge the gap to the top six, and it’s essential for the next five years of the project.

Upon stepping into the role, he had some choices to make in his first few weeks. Does he build bridges and relationships with his new colleagues and stakeholders by respecting the work that’s already gone into preparing for the window, while trying to add value where he can? Or does he take a more disruptive approach and stamp his ideas all over this window? In the end, I think he did a bit of both.

While I sympathize with the idea of wanting to make your mark in your first window at a club, speaking so publicly to the press about your new role and plans before you’re fully aligned with a manager who’s already feeling burned by a series of changes doesn’t seem emotionally intelligent to me. Let Eales handle the “We’re delighted Paul has joined to set our future” stuff, and privately put everyone on notice that you’ll be observing and reviewing processes to improve them. There’s nothing to gain by giving a public interview that can’t be misinterpreted by Howe and the wider staff at the club. Once that genie’s out of the bottle, it takes time to build trust and rebuild bridges—especially in an industry known for its passion and egos.

The results speak for themselves…

While it shouldn’t be forgotten that Newcastle did complete the signing of William Osula – a striker who could look like a steal if he develops well – the aftermath of that hubris has played out poorly.

Whatever the truth about the length of shortlists and alternative targets, it seemed that, after some friction between the two, England defender Marc Guehi was a point of agreement between Howe and Mitchell. While I understand why some fans get frustrated with Howe’s conservative and expensive approach to player targeting, its results are predictable and have pushed us forward with each deal.

It was the only deal pursued so aggressively, and Mitchell reportedly backed himself to get it done with the infamously difficult Steve Parish. For what it’s worth, but for Chadi’s injury, I think the deal would have gone through – even after Anderson’s sale to Fulham – but Mitchell’s desire to secure the best possible price delayed the transfer.

In my opinion, even a moderately sized overpay to complete the deal would have been better for the long-term relationship between Howe and Mitchell. There’s nothing particularly wrong with a 6 or 7 out of 10 transfer window when you can point to the timing as an excuse for not making too many changes too quickly.

While PSR provides something of an umbrella for Mitchell to shelter under, given the Anderson/Minteh debacle, the funds for at least one major deal were available. When you amortise a fee over 5-6 years, the difference between £65m and £75m is minimal, so while Mitchell deserves some credit for sticking to what he considers the top price for the player, he has also allowed another window to pass without a significant boost for the club.

By completing the deal quickly at a higher price point, Mitchell would have also avoided painting himself into a corner where he felt compelled to give yet another interview defending the decisions made throughout the window. In doing so, he criticised the deals that helped the club achieve 4th- and 7th-placed finishes after years of battling relegation. It all feels like he’s servicing his own ego, and it has been somewhat heavy-handed so far.

I’m not trying to be overly critical of Mitchell – the hand he was dealt here was a little rough. Howe is a stubborn manager, and PIF/Eales didn’t do a good job of laying the groundwork for his arrival. At least now that the window is closed until January, there is a chance for all parties involved to reset and align. Howe has time to move into the acceptance part of the change curve, and Mitchell has a period to shape the agenda in a way that is comfortable for all parties, so that by the end of that window, he’ll have completed more transfers than interviews.