Opinion: Trust the process?

Also in this edition: Analysis of what Vlachodimos & Ruddy will bring to Newcastle United.

"Make it make sense." This phrase was a staple of my frustration under the previous ownership of Newcastle United Football Club. I believed those days were behind us, but recent events suggest otherwise.

Before delving into the current situation, I must acknowledge the commendable efforts of the new owners at St James’ Park. Their tenure has seen the appointment of Eddie Howe, the avoidance of relegation, the eradication of negativity, a fourth-place finish, and the acquisition of outstanding players like Guimaraes, Isak, Botman, and Gordon. They have shown themselves to be smart, engaged, and generally empathetic leaders who, despite a few hiccups, have earned considerable goodwill.

However, the events of the past 48 hours cannot be brushed under the carpet without addressing some hard questions. The process that allowed a £50-60 million PSR black hole to persist until the deadline needs scrutiny. While we are grateful for the ambition that freed us from Mike Ashley's grip, that goodwill is undermined when the aspiration to be number one is replaced by a frantic scramble to sell players to avoid a PSR-enforced points deduction.

In January, I heard rumours that Newcastle needed to 'make a sale' to meet their PSR requirements. Initially, I was shocked and sceptical. Yet, weeks of player transfer links—Trippier to Bayern, Wilson to Atletico, and Almiron to the Saudi Pro League—coupled with Darren Eales' warnings about the need to sell, confirmed the issue.

Given the injury crisis and a season hanging in the balance, Howe’s push to keep his squad intact was understandable. Managers naturally want deep squads for flexibility. With European football still a possibility, I was willing to extend the benefit of the doubt to those managing the club’s finances.

However, five months have passed. Even with an optimistic perspective, it’s hard to justify why we weren’t ready to act when the transfer window opened. Even if we accept that players like Wilson, Dubravka, Trippier, Longstaff, and Targett were too difficult to shift, two main questions remain:

1. Why did we let the shortfall grow so large?

2. Why did we delay in addressing the inevitable solution?

The only plausible answer is that they gambled and lost. This miscalculation cost us one of Europe’s brightest right-wing prospects (Minteh) and a talented young player developed at the club (Anderson). While the prices achieved for both deals were commendable, neither player would have been top of the list to move on for footballing reasons.

It’s unwise to believe everything in the football news, but equally foolish to ignore it all. Thus, when rumours about Isak and Gordon were not entirely dismissed by the local press, it had an impact. Modern players are savvy, their agents are hungry and the uncertainty could affect Gordon’s willingness to sign a new deal, given his hometown club’s potential interest, emboldened by our financial mismanagement. Furthermore, the club’s uncertainty about avoiding penalties, even after these moves and a climbdown on Dan Ashworth’s compensation, erodes trust in the process.

The collateral damage to the perception of Newcastle United's broader project is significant. I say this not to snipe for clicks or likes, but as someone who dedicates a significant portion of my free time to creating content about the club. I love Newcastle United, and gambling with its reputation is something I cannot comprehend.

Which brings me back to my original plea: “Make it make sense.”

A couple of keepers…

Amid the PSR deadline madness, Newcastle United added two new goalkeepers to the squad to replace the almost certainly outgoing Martin Dubravka and the released Lorius Karius. Now I’d done a whole heap of work on a long bit of analysis on James Trafford, which now needs binning (😭), I’m on my holiday and looking at two older backup keepers isn’t anyone’s idea of a great time so I’ll keep this brief.

Odysseas Vlachodimos

He’s a vastly experienced Goalkeeper who played more than 150 times for Benfica and has 42 caps for Greece. In his few games at Nottingham Forest, he struggled to nail down a spot in the first team playing just 5.7 nineties during which he conceded 12 goals. He definitely wasn’t helped by Forest’s rather porous defence at the time either.

He’s not a keeper who commands his area all that aggressively, throughout his career he claims infrequently and generally only when it’s very safe to do so. He’s also, not very active when it comes to sweeping behind the defence.

However, there’s enough in his data throughout his time at Benfica to show he’s a solid enough shot-stopper (see last Benfica season shots faced below) and when it comes to his in-possession work, Vlachodimos is genuinely good. He consistently completes 55% plus of even his longer passes and kickstarts counterattacks with them too.

And here’s a comparison of his last full season at Benfica to Pope during our UCL qualification year 🔽

John Ruddy

A Scott Carson of our very own. Ruddy is hugely experienced, and part of me wonders whether this move move be with one eye on a future coaching role at the club. Relegated with Birmingham last season, Ruddy performed a little below average in the 23/24 season, ending on -3.20 Goals Saved Above Average. The deal is nothing to write home about, he’s an experienced pro who will be good for the dressing room.

Lowkey Ruddy is happy to sweep behind the defence too, with plenty of sweeping actions well outside of his penalty box.

For completeness, here's another comparison to Nick Pope for the radar fiends among you.

Stylistically, it seems a pretty good fit and maybe Ruddy will be the #2 at Newcastle should we need to call on either back-up during the season. Though fingers crossed that we do not because Pope really is excellent at everything bar kicking.