🤔 Rumour review | NUFC Transfer Links | Defenders & Midfielders - June 2023.

A critical review of the likelihood that some of the most persistent, speculative and missed deals from the early stages of the summer 23/24 transfer window.

Welcome 👋 to my first newsletter.

So Twitter was fun this weekend. Elon’s increasingly serious mismanagement of the platform he paid $44bn has kick-started me into action. From here on in I’ll be looking for emerging social platforms and new ways to connect with #NUFC fans that value my content.

Before the weekend’s fiasco, I’d made plans to start another informal space to chat with Newcastle United fans outside of the WyAyeScout umbrella and SubStack seems like the place to do that.

To those of you that were kind enough to lend me your email addresses a.) thank you and b.) outside of a dedicated WyAyeScout newsletter, this will be the only place I’ll use them.

Shut up and tell me what this Rumour review thing is Kev?

This is just my first stab at some newsletter content, so feedback is welcomed, but the basic premise here is to run a critical eye over the likelihood of some of the most persistent transfer rumours that surround “the richest club in football”.

When time allows or when a rumour is rife, I’ll provide some unbiased commentary and a rating about the likelihood of that player joining the club based on NUFC’s style of play, what we’ve learned from previously completed deals and applying some critical thinking to what the wider coverage surrounding Newcastle United.

It’s just for fun, but I hope that it may provide some valuable food for thought to those that read it.

Rating the current crop of persistent links:

For each prospective link, I’ll be grading them on a 0-10 scale, with marks out of 10 awarded for three factors: 1.) Positional need 2.) Player Profile and 3.) Fee and context and then divided by three.

If you would like a full list of players linked with Newcastle United each month read here ➡️ nufc.com track EVERY SINGLE LINK, an amazing effort from Biffa and co.

Valentino Livramento (Right Back)

So while Right Back hadn’t been a position I considered in my transfer thread before the summer, but with the benefit of hindsight it shouldn’t be a surprise that Newcastle’s recruitment team are trying to find Trippier’s long-term successor (he is 33 now).

This has been widely reported by enough outlets to know that this is a legit link and I think this (and the Tonali move) reveals that Newcastle love to be opportunistic and take advantage of a club’s circumstances.

A couple of potential blockers to this deal are Chelsea’s sell-on profit clause and Livramento’s desire to play first-team football. For my money, the latter feels like more of an issue. Having worked so hard to get back from ACL it’s understandable that he wouldn't want to spend a large amount of time on the bench. Salesman job needed by the recruitment team. Rumour Rating: 7.33

Keiran Tierney (Left Back)

Going into the window, the mix of media and Twitter gossip made Tierney to Newcastle feel like a fait-accompli, but I’ve never been wholly convinced. While Tierney does have a number of the defensive qualities that NUFC prizes - especially his 1v1 defending - his ineffectiveness in the air and injury record make him a huge red flag.

Why does his aerial prowess matter so much? Well, it’s because of the man he would replace in the lineup. Whatever you think about Burn, he wins A LOT of headers. So many that he has the highest heading score (600) on StatsBomb’s heading model of any NUFC player and Tierney is rated at a score of 271 - which is only slightly higher than Jamal Lewis… the jump is too big and would cause match-up issues at set pieces (see image above).

What NUFC need is someone that splits the difference between Burn and Trippier, so when you factor this in with Tierney’s price you get a big 👎 from me. Maybe a loan towards the end of the window. Rumour Rating: 5.00

Lewis Hall (Left Back)

Okay, now this is a left-back deal I can get behind. Hall is an incredibly talented left-back who despite a lowish Aerial Win % is rated about the same as Trippier (425) in the air on StatsBomb’s model at just over 400. He’s just 18 and like a zillion other youngsters at Chelsea his pathway into the first team is blocked by Chillwell, Cucarella and Sarr. With just a couple of years left on his deal, it feels like Chelsea won’t be silly on price. Rumour Rating: 8.66

Antonee Robinson

No graphic here. While Robinson is a tremendous athlete, I’m not convinced by his positional play or his back-post defending. I’m also not convinced that Newcastle spend big on left-back this summer, so a reported £35m asking price doesn’t add up for me, but heck who knows really? Rumour Rating: 4.33

David Hancko

A centre-back for his club team and a left-back for his national team makes Hancko the ideal profile to compete with or replace Burn in the starting line-up at Newcastle. In terms of his playing style and profile, Hancko hits the mark. The word is that Hancko may have a release clause of around 25m Euros, no idea if that’s just idle gossip, but this may be one to come back around later in the window. Rumour Rating: 7.66

Joachim Anderson

One thing that I learned when I was researching my Twitter transfer mega thread 🧵 was that finding central defenders that have speed, are excellent in the air AND are good on the deck isn’t easy. Anderson has a header rating of 570, which is considerably better than Schar and better than Botman (550) too. He has the range of passing and - while not quick - covers the ground better than Schar. As the song goes, “Two out of three ain’t bad”. Rumour Rating: 8.00

Kalvin Phillips

So this is where things start to get more complicated. The capture of Sandro Tonali - you can read more about him in this WyAyeScout analysis - means that the profile of any additional central midfielder we might target shifts to back-ups and younger players.

That’s because Tonali is likely to play on the right side of our midfield three, with Longstaff as his backup and Joelinton/Willock fighting it out for the left side of the trio, then the only remaining move that makes sense is a young specialist that can play as a 6 to backup Guimarães.

For that reason, it’s unlikely that Phillips will join Newcastle - even on loan. If he leaves City, it’ll be to start somewhere. Rumour Rating: 5.33

Scott McTominay

It’s for this reason that I think it’s unlikely that McTominay now joins Newcastle United. He’s best playing the same right-side 8 role as Tonali and Longstaff. I had felt he was too much of a Howe player for us not to make a move, but I think we can put that to bed for now. Rumour Rating: 4.33

Khéphren Thuram or Amadou Onana

The reason that Thuram and Onana are not in the same bracket is that they’re more apt on playing on the left side of the midfield three. There is some sense that Joelinton’s form towards the end of last season could see Howe and his coaches decide to permanently move him to the left wing.

In that scenario, either Thuram or Onana would make a lot of sense. Much like Tonali, both men are able to cover Guimarães’ central role in a pinch - even though neither really has the positional discipline to play it perfectly.

With all that being said, it feels like the fee for either player might be beyond what Newcastle will be prepared to pay without a significant sale. Rumours Rating: 7.00

Tyler Adams

There was a moment during last season’s home draw with Leeds in which Tyler Adams had gotten under the skin of every single one of Newcastle’s midfield… the hard-working midfielder had spoiled nearly everything Howe’s team tried in midfield and was genuinely impervious to the cauldron of St James Pak that evening.

That sort of character appeals to Howe. It just so happens that Adams is also a young specialist six who would be a perfect squad man to step in whenever Guimarães is injured, needs to be rested or moved higher up the pitch. Price-wise what was £40m at the start of the window seems to be dipping down to £25m, if it gets lower I can see Newcastle expanding the membership of Shithouse FC by one.
Rumour Rating: 6.66

Want to get involved?

If the response to this email is good, I’ll have a go at some of the more attacking players on the pitch next and dedicate some space to how I feel about Maddison & Szoboslai going elsewhere.

In the meantime, if a player that you’d like me to add to the next Rumour Review - or there’s someone obvious that I missed - then let me know via Twitter or via Threads…