🤔 Rumour review | NUFC Transfer Links | Wingers & Forwards - June 2023

Part 2 of a critical review of the likelihood that some of the most persistent, speculative and missed deals from the early stages of the summer 23/24 transfer window.

Firstly a thank you 🙏

Less preamble in this newsletter for subscribers, before I delve into rating the links to wingers & forwards, would like to say thank you for the feedback I’ve had from readers on here, Twitter and Threads.

I had a proper wobble about whether to release the newsletter at all, so it’s been nice to hear that you enjoyed it. If that ever stops, let me know yeah? Deal 🤝

A quick reminder of the framework

For each prospective player linked with a move to Newcastle United, I’ll score any potential transfer on a scale of 0-10. I’ll award scores out of 10 for 1.) Positional need 2.) Player Profile and 3.) Fee and context, add them and then divide by three to get a simple average. Got it? Okay, let’s get to the fun stuff.

Linked players

Harvey Barnes

The most strongly linked winger in the past couple of weeks. Prior to the summer, I picked Barnes in my top three wingers that Newcastle were likely to try and sign this summer because he has A LOT of the things that both the club and Howe would like this summer.

Looking at the Radar comparison (see above) at how Barnes 🔵 compares to Saint-Maximin 🔴 across the last three seasons. On expected numbers, Maxi is clearly the more creative player - I was surprised to see Barnes attempting more Line Breaking Passes in the final third - however, there’s a similarly sized gap in Barnes’ favour when it comes to goalscoring.

I’ve seen a lot of complaints about Newcastle needing a creative player to unlock defences and in truth, I’ve thought this myself at times. However, there were actually only five teams in the league that created more than Howe’s men from open play and given that Maxi only played a third of the season, it’s clear we managed well enough without him.

The main attacking issue Newcastle had was poor spells of finishing - particularly in January and February. It’s for this reason that it would seem the strongest links are to goalscoring rather than creative wingers - and perhaps why Dominik Szoboszlai wasn’t pursued with more aggression.

Anyway, I digress. One thing that Barnes has shown an aptitude for is finishing. Over the past three seasons, he’s scored 28 goals from 20.31xG taking 195 shots. Normally I’d say that this is unsustainable - and it might still be - but there is some evidence that he’s an above-average finisher. Here is his post-shot expected goals (PsXG) map since the start of the 2020 season 🔽

Now PSxG measures the quality of the finish rather than chance, so he’s +5 compared to the quality of the chances he had across an 80-game sample which ain’t too shabby. He might not be the sexiest name linked to Newcastle, but off the back of a 13-goal season in a relegated team, he feels like a no-risk and dependable transfer, Howe loves those. Rumour Rating: 8.33

UPDATE - Since drafting the above, Matt Law at the Telegraph has said we’re set to sign Harvey Barnes in the next week… you can read that here, pretty sure it gets done 👍

Federico Chiesa

This is a pretty tricky transfer rumour to assess. On the face of it, a move Chiesa feels like the sort of opportunistic deal that Newcastle United would fancy doing. A 25-year-old international whose obvious talent hasn’t been fulfilled at a big club. A technical player in the hands of an ultra-conservative manager who hasn’t really found a consistent role for him. Under Allegri, Chiesa has at times played on either wing, as a wingback and upfront. Add a very serious Cruciate Ligament Rupture that the player suffered at the start of 2022 to this mix and you’re relying heavily on qualitative sources to make a deal happen.

To me, this is a matter of price vs. your confidence in his underlying ability. With FFP looming and Howe’s preference for surer bets this summer, I do wonder if a loan with a view to a full purchase could be the play for Newcastle if they do have an interest. With Barnes potentially signing, Maxi would HAVE to leave for this to happen.
Rumour Rating: 5.33

Jesper Lindström

Lindström is a young, right-footed (though he is willing to use his left) attacker who has spent most of the season playing just to the right of a number 10 position this season.

He has height and is an outrageously fun dribbler who can win the ball back via the press and gets his shots away. I’ve not watched a lot of him barring a few highlight reels on YouTube (Hi Dennis Wise 👋) but IF Maxi was to leave, I could see a move for him materialise as a squad man.

His volume of turnovers does worry me - seeing as this is an issue Gordon also has - and could lead to more counterattacks. With a 30m Euro price tag and a deal for Barnes now looking close, I’d file this under unlikely.
Rumour Rating: 5.33

Moussa Diaby, Xavi Simons & Rayan Cherki

Right, these next three are specifically for Gordon, Lauren and Darren who asked for me to cover them in this newsletter. I had planned to give them more space but in light of this evening’s news about Barnes their rumour stonks are at the time of writing through the floor.

In all seriousness, what I will say is that I can’t see Diaby being signed by Newcastle United in the near future. For all of his undoubted creativity on the ball, he doesn’t fit the style of the team. At some point, Newcastle will transition to buying short and technical players, but I think we’re a couple of seasons away from that yet.

The other two are good talents. I like them a lot, but unless Maxi is sold, they will all be prohibitively expensive. We can revisit these two after some players have left 🤝
Combined Rumour Rating: 4.66

Desire Doue

Reported by the ever-reliable Mark Douglas, Desire Doue is a player of interest to Newcastle United. Now I consider Mark to be one of the best journalists covering the club - the Chronicle’s coverage certainly got worse after he left - so I’m treating this link seriously. He’s 17, a good athlete, presses amazingly well, and loves to play a backheel or flick pass 😘. He can play across the entire frontline and at a reported £12m, I think this has a chance. Rumour Rating: 8.00

Matheus Franca

Another name from my pre-window transfer thread. With Chelsea -AKA the relentless football player buying operation - now sniffing around, this feels harder to complete than it did in January. It also doesn’t feel like Newcastle has ever wanted to meet the asking price for this player either. Good prospect though. Rumour Rating: 6.00

For a full list of players linked with a move to Newcastle United, head over to this page at nufc.com, it’s a truly amazing resource.

What’s next?

Will take a look at two of the heavily linked players Newcastle have already ‘missed out’ on, and maybe write a bit more about Barnes. Who knows, at this point I’m out of control.

Anyways, I’ll hopefully see some of you at the Gateshead game. HWTL ⚫ ⚪

Cheers,
Kev