What will Anthony Elanga bring to the right side of Newcastle United's attack?

An data-led analysis of Anthony Elanga's £52m move from Nottingham Forest to the North East.

The following newsletter originally appeared on Bluesky as a thread of posts

Anthony Elanga has joined #NUFC in a £52m deal from Nottingham Forest. Following long-term interest, the acquisition ends the club’s 3️⃣ year search for a new first-team right winger. Why did Howe & co. opt for the 🇸🇪 international? Let’s dig in 🧵

—

Let’s start simple & take a look at Elanga’s basic EPL numbers to help put the more advanced metrics into some context. At Forest, Elanga played the majority of his 2,750 minutes (30.6 worth of 90s) on the right wing, scoring 6️⃣ goals & recording 1️⃣1️⃣ assists.

Here’s how that translates into Elanga’s EPL output 🔴 vs. the league average 🔵 for 24/25 for attacking midfielders. Even at a glance you it’s clear that it doesn't give you the vibe of a forward capable of 17 goal contributions in 24/25 (& 14 in 23/24) or what you’d hope to see £50m+.

So that poses a couple of questions ❓

1️⃣ If his Elanga’s output looks ordinary, why are #NUFC prepared to pay so much for him?
2️⃣ If he’s average, how did he get close to 20 goal contributions last season?

So let’s dig for some answers.

—

When it comes to the question of why Elanga? Well, he has qualities that Howe & Newcastle's scouts prize:

🏃‍♂️ Elite acceleration & pace
☄️ Dangerous (but inconsistent) crossing & set pieces
↔️ Versatile forward who can use both feet
👥 Team style negatively impacting stats

—

🏃‍♂️ Elite acceleration & pace

Let’s start with one anyone could spot even after a few too many in the Strawberry. Elanga is fast both with & without the ball. How fast? Well, here he is cooking Lewis Hall over 15 yards. Hall isn’t a speedster, but Elanga makes him look Burn-esq 🔽

When presented with the right opportunity, his ability to generate enough separation across even short distances to get a cross in - or, in matchups where the speed disparity is high, to zoom past his man entirely - makes him dangerous in both counter-attacking & set-defence scenarios.

What's more, his ability to sustain his pace & speed across the 90 is truly elite. For sprints over 25km/h Elanga 🔴 delivers high levels of volume & distance exceeding Newcastle‘s current wingers 🟠 – bar the league-leading Gordon.

However, at times, Elanga’s speed comes at the expense of control. For Forest, he turned the ball over to the opposition 3.17 times per 90. While this should improve as a result of moving from Forest's improvised counters to Newcastle’s more repeatable attacking patterns, Howe has work to do here.

☄️ Dangerous (but inconsistent) crossing & set pieces

Because of his pace, opposing fullbacks drop a yard to buy reaction time, giving Elanga room to cross. When he gets them right, their shape & speed cause havoc. Here’s a peach vs West Ham that someone should be getting on the end of.

Last season, 6️⃣ of his 1️⃣1️⃣ assists were a cross from open play or a set piece. While crossing is a low probability way to score (taking somewhere between 65-94 crosses to generate a goal) in tight games, Newcastle often rely on them - especially from the byline - to break down stubborn defences.

In fact, when Newcastle are drawing, about 25% of their entries into the box come from crosses. So Elanga’s ability to separate & deliver could give even low blocks plenty to think about—especially if Howe can raise his successful crossing rate above 28%.

Here are four examples that typify his crossing. There are two successful and two failed crosses here, each of them has created genuine danger for defences. In particular, I’d like you to pay attention to the cross vs. Everton.

↔️ Versatile forward who can use both feet

That cross shows Elanga’s comfort using either foot. Turning him into a pick your poison proposition for full backs. Stand off too far, he'll whip a cross in, get too tight, he'll zoom by or shift onto his left to create a new passing/shooting angle.

—

The use of his weaker left foot is deeply ingrained in Elanga's game. Last season, he attempted 159 passes with his left foot, completing 🔴 63.5% with the majority of failed passes 🟡 in areas of the pitch you’d expect them to be 🔽

Elanga’s comfort on his ‘wrong’ foot was something he added to his game during the 8-month Covid break. If you can forgive a bit of armchair psychology, to me this is evidence of his desire to improve & coachability - qualities that Howe loves above all.

Read more here - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cx20jrg56elo

The rewards of this hard work have been evident in the 24/25, with the young Swede scoring 5️⃣ of his 6️⃣ league goals with his left foot last season. 🔽

Rather than show you selected clips, here’s a handy video of every Assist & Goal from Elanga last season to give you and overview of how these qualities combine in key moments to elevate his output to exceed his underlying numbers.🔽

When analysing any of Elanga's film & data, his pace, crossing & comfort with both pop off the screen & spreadsheets. But questions about how well he’ll fit into Howe’s system & how much he could improve his output at Newcastle requires a little more digging.

–

For example, some fans have asked: “Can he thrive in a high pressing team?”

Well, if we take a look back at his breakthrough season at Man Utd, there’s evidence of a player able to not just graft without the ⚽ (21.78 possession-adj pressures) but to do so effectively (3.58 pressure regains).

Now compare his off-ball work at Forest 🔵 to this same season at Man Utd 🔴. You can see the effect of Ralf Rangnick’s ill-fated attempts to play a pressing style vs. Nuno’s drop-in & defend approach.

It’s a very basic example of 👥 Team style negatively impacting Elanga’s stats. This is often referred to as “Team Effect” so it’s important to look at all of his output through the prism of the team he's been playing for.

–

While Forest obviously made a run for the UCL places last year, Nuno’s sit-in & break on the counter tactical style left Forest with the fifth-worst attack in the EPL for the last two seasons based on the quality of the chances they created (xG)🔽

In that context, Elanga’s 6 goals / 11 Assist in 24/25 & 5 Goals / 9 Assists in 23/24 feel encouragingly consistent. Drop him into the EPL’s 4th-best attack across both seasons, & it’s fair to ask how much those numbers might climb. If Gordon’s rise is any guide, there’s reason to be excited.

—

In rebuttable to this, I've seen some fans suggest that he’ll struggle in a team that plays a more possession orientated game, but that doesn’t stack up either. Despite #NUFC 🔵 having an average of 51% possession vs. Forest’s 42% 🔴 Howe’s team generated more counter attacking shots per 90.

Conclusions

In summary, Elanga’s profile is a natural fit for Newcastle United, but his game needs polishing. If Howe can repeat the improvements he's coached out of Gordon, Almiron & Murphy, the potential ceiling for Elanga feels very high IMHO.

—

How high? Well, Howe’s done SUCH a good job of turning Murphy 🔵 into one of the best creative wingers in the entire EPL over the last 18 months, is there’s a decent chance Elanga 🔴 will have his work cut out to cement his place in the first 11.

So while the lack of clear statistical uplift vs. Murphy or the league average makes the fee feel steep, stylistically, Elanga looks tailor-made for Howe’s system. I wouldn’t bet against Eddie unlocking a new level in the young forward.