What's happening with Newcastle United so far this season?

After suffering three defeats in a row, questions are being asked about where it's going wrong for Eddie Howe's team.

The opening weeks of the season have been a bit of an emotional rollercoaster for Newcastle fans. The triumphant highs of the opening weekend win vs. Villa have been replaced with the low of three defeats on the spin, leaving fans with a dizzying amount of opinions and unanswered questions:

• How did confidently humbled Villa look so uncertain against Liverpool and Brighton?

• What’s happened to [insert your player of choice here]?

• Was our transfer business right? Are we actually better than last season or have we gone backwards?

These are ALWAYS questions to be asked when a team loses three on the spin – even when the fixture list is tough – because fans instinctively know how much momentum means for player confidence and perhaps we lack a little faith in the ability of some of the players we realized upon to get us into the top four last season.

So what are the answers? Well at this stage of the season, it’s really difficult to draw any firm conclusions. Reading too much into data from three of four games worth of minutes is fraught with pitfalls – even more so when you look at the quality of the opposition Newcastle United have faced.

Even so, there are a few things which I’ve observed which bear closer inspection over the coming weeks.

The midfield three haven’t gelled…yet

It’s been an odd start for our trio in midfield. Against Aston Villa, the trio looked like the mix looked like it was oven-ready and would work without much fuss.

Whenever Newcastle had the ball, Tonali and Guimaraes swapped positions throughout the game, Joelinton and Gordon dovetailed nicely on the left – despite a pretty tough opening hour, once we established a two-goal lead, normal service had been resumed at St James’ Park.

The above passing network is a pretty typical example of Newcastle throughout last season. On the right side of the pitch, the Trippier, Alimron and Longstaff triangle circulate the ball focusing on retaining possession and circulating the ball in order to move teams around and create chances. While Guimaraes is relied upon to act like the fulcrum and move the ball to the left side of the pitch the opportunity arises. Sometimes he does this from a position more advanced than Longstaff, sometimes a little behind, it all depends on where the opposition decides to cede space.

Against Man City, this right-side circulation gets disrupted and the passing links between Trippier, Tonali and Almiron become stretched, leaving the latter isolated and seeing Guimaraes step forward to help try to ignite play on that side of the pitch. This in turn pulls Joelinton infield to try to connect the left side of Newcastle’s attack to the rest of the team and help Guimaraes with City’s excellent double pivot. The 1-0 loss wasn’t a terrible result, Newcastle had moments where a little more quality and calmness could’ve made all the difference.

Against Liverpool, the ball circulation machine on the right side of the pitch is in need of more support. Guimaraes is now nearly in Tonali’s position from the first game, while the Italian keeps drifting wider and remaining deep, again Joelinton is pulling infield to help connect the left side of the attack.

Against Brighton, as Jacob Whitehead suggested in his excellent article in the Athletic, we see an over-correction. Tonali pushes further forward on the ball, but too far and again is too wide. Schar is stepping up to provide support to Guimaraes and Joelinton/Gordon are forced infield to connect.

While I’m sure there is an element of the two men attempting to find the positional flexibility that Howe spoke about in the summer. To find ways to release Guimaraes into attacking areas with Tonali seamlessly filling, at the moment the two men – and the supporting cast – have a lack of clarity about where they need to be in relation to one another whenever this happens. The muscle memory isn’t quite there yet and it’s creating structural problems both with and without the ball.

This isn’t to say that Tonali has played poorly as an individual either. He’s clearly suited to the blood and thunder of the Premier League, but the tension needed between defence and attack to excel on the right-side of the midfield three is not easy. It was a role that neither Willock nor Joelinton really fully got to grips with last season and it will take time for Tonali to master it too.

To illustrate how all action that role is check out the visual below. The left Image shows all of Longstaff’s touches from the 22/23 season (left image). The redder the area, the more frequently he touched the ball. Now compare the locations to Tonali’s so far this season (right image).

With Tonali so far wide with the ball, whenever Newcastle lose it, the lines in midfield become stretched – especially whenever they turn the ball over. Again when you compare Tonali so far this season (right) with Longstaff last season (left) we see that Italian is too wide and potentially leaving himself too much ground to cover to help in more central areas.

With Tonali so far right, Guimaraes and Joelinton are being pulled away from their ideal positions. Last season (left) Guimareas covered both sides of the pitch, knowing that Longstaff would drop into any space he vacated, so far this season (right) he’s been more focused on helping his new teammate.

Now this could just be a weird quirk of how each of the games has played out so far this season – so some health warnings remain in place – but a stretched or lopsided (if you prefer) line across midfield would somewhat explain how easy teams have found it to play through our midfield so far this season.

To further illustrate this point, here’s Joelinton’s defensive activity map from last season (left) and this season (right) as he attempts to cover the space left by Guimaraes who is in turn reacting to the space left by Tonali.

I want to stress again, this isn’t me apportioning blame to any individuals. Midfield is an area of the pitch where roles and duties are always somewhat fluid. But whereas every single one of Guimareas, Willock, Joelinton and Longstaff knew each other’s roles and games inside out, it will take a little longer than it first appeared to assimilate Tonali into this group.

Nick Pope’s form

One other thing to keep an eye on is the form of Nick Pope. So far this season, Newcastle have conceded 7 goals from 4.81 expected goals conceded. You can see all of the chances below.

Now while it’s fair to say that there have been some exceptional finishes against Newcastle so far this season, Pope will be disappointed to have not kept a couple more out.

Using post-shot expected goals conceded (PSxG) - which measures the quality of the finish rather than the chance – so far this season, Pope is -2.53 Goals Saved Above Average. Conceding an extra couple of goals in just 4 games could be at least an extra point for Newcastle this season.

Perhaps his hand surgery is still bothering him, or perhaps he’s just out of form. I can’t help but think that – at his best – Pope gets to Ferguson’s long ranger (left), gets a better hand to Alvarez’s goal at City (centre) or doesn’t rush out as far for Nunez’s winner (right) 🔽

Conclusions

The indifferent form of Pope and the struggles of the midfield trio aren’t huge issues for Newcastle United yet. It’s important to acknowledge that we’re still early in the season, that following Longstaff’s injury Howe had little choice but to play Tonali in such difficult games and that the quality of the opposition would expose any weaknesses – however short-term they may be.

After four games, the international break gives everyone the chance to take stock and reset. While the counter-attacking Brentford at home isn’t necessarily the fixture I’d pick to steady the ship it’s now a crucial game to give Howe and co. some momentum heading into the Champions League and some more winnable fixtures in the league too.